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Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth

American Economic Review 2024 114(8), 2436-2471 open access
This paper studies how firms adapt to demand shocks when facing capacity constraints. I show that increases in government purchases raise total factor productivity in quantity units at the production line level. Productivity gains are concentrated in plants facing tighter capacity constraints, a phenomenon I call “learning by necessity.” Evidence is based on newly digitized archival data on US World War II aircraft production. Shifts in demand across aircraft with different strategic roles provide an instrument for aircraft demand. I show that plants adapted to surging demand by improving production methods, outsourcing, and combating absenteeism, primarily when facing tighter capacity constraints.

The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach

American Economic Review 2019 109(6), 2104-2136 open access
We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the United Kingdom and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and borrowing in a panel of homeowners, who refinance at regular and quasi-exogenous intervals. The data and setting allow us to develop an empirical approach that exploits house price variation coming from the idiosyncratic and exogenous timing of refinance events around the Great Recession. We present two main results. First, there is a clear and robust effect of house prices on borrowing. Second, the effect of house prices on borrowing can be explained largely by collateral effects. We study the collateral channel through a multivariate and nonparametric heterogeneity analysis of proxies for collateral and wealth effects.