Knowledge that Transforms

This article develops an intertemporal, discrete-time, competitive equilibrium version of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) and explores the econometric implications of this model under various restrictions on investor preferences and on the dynamic behavior of dividends. We describe conditions under which the econometric techniques typically used for estimating and testing the APT can be shown to be consistent with our economic model. We relate our intertemporal version of the APT to the static APT and to Merton’s intertemporal capital asset pricing model.

This article studies an asymmetric information game with "type convergence, " in which, under some realizations of a common uncertainity, inducing informed agents to reveal their types through self-selection by contract choice is either costly or impossible. Under other realizations, self-selection permits costless distinctions between informed agents. I obtain sufficient conditions under which contracting with options prior to the realization of the common uncertainity leads to the existence of a perfectly separating, costless Nash equilibrium. Applications to variable rate loan commitments and life insurance contracting are discussed. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

If you pick up a copy of Theory of Valuation,1 and I suggest that you do, the first thing likely to impress you is the length of the editors' last names (26 letters in total). After getting over that, you will probably turn to the table of contents to see which of your friends or mentors are represented. If you are like me, you might be embarrassed that you had not yet read one (I will not say which one in my case), or perhaps more, of these classics, and you might feel that there are one or more pieces that might have been added. Perhaps your choices would include Harrison and Kreps' (1979) martingale characterization of security prices or Arrow's (1953) paper on “The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk Bearing,” (still required reading for doctoral finance students at Stanford). On the whole, however, you will be impressed. If you teach a course on asset pricing theory for doctoral students, you are likely to adopt this book as a supplementary text. If you read the book from cover to cover, including the mainly excellent new discussions, you will have fun and will profit from the time spent.

The Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein binomial model is generalized to the multinomial case. Limits are investigated and shown to yield the Black-Scholes formula in the case of continuous sample paths for a wide variety of complete market structures. In the discontinuous case of Merton-type formula is shown to result, provided jump probabilities are replaced by their corresponding Arrow-Debreu prices.

This article presents a mean-variance framework for likelihood-ratio tests of asset pricing models. A pricing model is tested by examining the position of one or more reference portfolios in sample mean-standard-deviation space. Included are tests of both single-beta and multiple-beta relations, with or without a riskless asset, using either a general or a specific alternative hypothesis. Tests with a factor that is not a portfolio return are also included. The mean-variance framework is illustrated by testing the zero-beta CAPM, a two-beta pricing model, and the consumption-beta model.

This paper develops and tests arbitrage bounds for a combination of two option spread positions known as a box spread. This strategy involves the simultaneous use of four options and creates a position that is equivalent to riskless lending. The no-arbitrage conditions are compared to existing arbitrage bounds and are tested using Chicago Board Options Exchange data.

We investigate several asset pricing models in an international setting. We use data on a large number of assets traded in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France. The model together with the hypothesis of capital market integration imply testable restrictions on multivariate regressions relating asset returns to various benchmark portfolios. We find that multifactor models tend to outperform single-index models in both domestic and international forms especially in their ability to explain seasonality in asset returns. We also find that the behavior of the models is affected by change in the regulatory environment in international markets.

This article reexamines the value of tax trading when the tax rate on long-term realizations is less than that on short-term realizations. In particular, the value of the option to realize long-term capital gains and repurchase stock in order to increase one’s tax basis and restart the option to realize future losses short term is examined empirically. Our estimate of the incremental value of restarting, which is based on the results of simulations of several alternative tax trading policies over a large number of independent return sequences, is generally much smaller than that reported by Constantinides (1984). The incremental value of restarting is shown to depend critically on the particular pattern of realized returns and the assumed tax treatment of unrealized capital gains at the end of the simulation period. The effects of stock price volatility, transaction costs, portfolio offset rules, and realization cutoff levels on the value of tax trading are also investigated.

We develop a model in which stock repurchases serve as a defense against takeovers by signaling the manager’s private information about the value of the firm. The manager repurchases shares to block a takeover only if the cost of doing so is not too high. Since the cost is inversely related to the value of the firm under his management, a repurchase signals that the value of the stock is high, blocking a takeover. While a repurchase increases the expected value of the stock, it also makes the stock riskier. The model also implies that there are too few takeovers for efficiency.

This article documents an apparent pricing anomaly involving 94 percent, 30-year Treasury bonds during the months of May and June 1986. During this period, the price of the 94s rose sharply relative to the prices of other long-term Treasury bonds and created a potential arbitrage opportunity. In addition, owners of the 94 bonds were able to borrow at a zero interest rate bypledging their bonds. Detailed examination reveals that this relative pricing anomaly cannot be attributed to changes in the level or term structure of interest rates or to differences between the bonds with respect to liquidity, taxation, or duration.