Knowledge that Transforms

We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets.

The paper presents descriptive evidence from quantile regressions and more “structural” estimates from a human capital model with heterogenous returns to show that most of the increase in wage inequality between 1973 and 2005 is due to a dramatic increase in the return to post-secondary education. The model with heterogenous returns also helps explain why both the relative wages and the within-group dispersion among highlyeducated workers have increased in tandem over time. These findings add to the growing evidence that, far from being ubiquitous, changes in wage inequality are increasingly concentrated in the very top end of the wage distribution.

I show existing evidence on labor supply behavior places an upper bound on risk aversion in the expected utility model. I derive a formula for the coefficient of relative risk aversion (γ) in terms of the ratio of the income elasticity of labor supply to wage elasticity and degree of complementarity between consumption and labor. I bound the degree of complementarity using data on consumption choices when labor supply varies across states. Using labor supply elasticity estimates, I find a mean estimate of [Formula: see text], then show generating γ > 2 requires that wage increases cause sharper labor supply reductions.

It has long been recognized that the media play an essential role in government accountability. Even in the absence of censorship, however, the government may influence news content by maintaining a “cozy” relationship with the media. This paper develops a model of democratic politics in which media capture is endogenous. The model offers insights into the features of the media market that determine the ability of the government to exercise such capture and hence to influence political outcomes.

Gender and Performance: Evidence from School Assignment by Randomized Lottery by Justine S. Hastings, Thomas J. Kane and Douglas O. Staiger. Published in volume 96, issue 2, pages 232-236 of American Economic Review, May 2006

The Impact of Group Membership on Cooperation and Norm Enforcement: Evidence Using Random Assignment to Real Social Groups by Lorenz Goette, David Huffman and Stephan Meier. Published in volume 96, issue 2, pages 212-216 of American Economic Review, May 2006

The Impact of State Licensing Regulations on Low-Skilled Immigrants: The Case of Vietnamese Manicurists by Maya N. Federman, David E. Harrington and Kathy J. Krynski. Published in volume 96, issue 2, pages 237-241 of American Economic Review, May 2006

Volume 2 of A History of the Federal Reserve covers mainly the years of inflation and disinflation, followed by a return to what is now regarded as relatively low inflation. It treats four questions: Why did inflation start? Why did it continue for 15 or more years, from 1965 to about 1982? Why did it end? Why did it not return? In this paper, I give an overview of the material that I consider in much greater detail in my book

Housing, Credit Constraints, and Macro Stability: The Secondary Mortgage Market and Reduced Cyclicality of Residential Investment by Joe Peek and James A. Wilcox. Published in volume 96, issue 2, pages 135-140 of American Economic Review, May 2006

Human capital investments are not independent of the aggregate state of labor markets: frictions and slackness of the labor market raise the returns to specific human capital investments relative to general investments. We build a macroeconomic model with two pure strategy regimes. In the pure G-regime, workers invest in general skills. This occurs when they face high turnover labor markets and in the absence of employment protection. The pure 5-regime in which workers invest in skills specific to their job appears when employment protection is high enough. Implications for a characterization of Europe-United States differences are provided in conclusion.