Knowledge that Transforms

We measure job-filling rates and recruiting intensity per vacancy at the national and industry levels from January 2001 to September 2011 using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Industry-level movements in these variables are at odds with implications of the standard matching function in labor search theory but consistent with a generalized function that incorporates an important role for recruiting intensity. Construction makes up less than five percent of employment but accounts for more than 40 percent of the large swings in the job-filling rate during and after the Great Recession.

This paper shows that the collapse of the global market for syndicated loans during financial crises can in part be explained by a flight home effect whereby lenders rebalance their loan portfolios in favor of domestic borrowers. The home bias of lenders' loan origination increases by approximately 20% if the bank's home country experiences a banking crisis. This flight home effect is distinct from flight to quality because borrowers of different quality are equally affected. The results indicate that the home bias in capital allocation tends to increase when adverse economic shocks reduce the wealth of international investors.

Holdout problems prevent private (voluntary and self-financing) assembly of complementary goods—such as land or dispersed spectrum—from many self-interested sellers. While mechanisms that fully respect sellers' property rights cannot alleviate these holdout problems, traditional solutions, such as the use of coercive government powers of “eminent domain” to expropriate property, can encourage wasteful and unfair assemblies. We discuss the problems holdout creates for the efficient operation of markets and how previous approaches have used regulated coercion to address these challenges. We then investigate when encouraging competition can partially or fully substitute for coercion, focusing particularly on questions of spectrum allocation.

We study a natural experiment in the Indian mutual funds sector that created a 22-month period in which closed-end funds were allowed to charge an arguably shrouded fee, whereas open-end funds were forced to charge entry loads. Forty-five new closed-end funds were started during this period, collecting $7.6 billion US, whereas only two closed-end funds were started in the 66 months prior to this period, collecting $42 billion US, and no closed-end funds were started in the 20 months after this period. We estimate that investors lost and fund firms gained approximately $350 million US due to this shrouding. JEL: D14, G23, G28, O16

Researchers often hold out data from the estimation of econometric models to use for external validation. However, the use of holdout samples is suboptimal from a Bayesian perspective, which prescribes using the entire sample to form posterior model weights. This paper examines a possible rationale for the use of holdout samples: data-inspired modifications of structural models are likely to lead to an exaggeration of model fit. The use of holdout samples can, in principle, set an incentive for the modeler not to exaggerate model fit.

A real wage rate is a nominal wage rate divided by the price of a good and is a transparent measure of how much of the good an hour of work buys. It provides an important indicator of the living standards of workers, and also of the productivity of workers. In this paper I set out the conceptual basis for such measures, provide some historical examples, and then provide my own preliminary analysis of a decade long project designed to measure the wages of workers doing the same job in over 60 countries—workers at McDonald's restaurants. The results demonstrate that the wage rates of workers using the same skills and doing the same jobs differ by as much as 10 to 1, and that these gaps declined over the period 2000–2007, but with much less progress since the Great Recession.

We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles in which changes in investor sentiment lead to the appearance and collapse of macroeconomic bubbles or pyramid schemes. These bubbles mitigate the effects of financial frictions. During bubbly episodes, unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive investors supply them. These transfers of resources improve economic efficiency thereby expanding consumption, the capital stock and output. When bubbly episodes end, there is a fall in consumption, the capital stock and output. We argue that the stochastic equilibria of the model provide a natural way of introducing bubble shocks into business cycle models.

A key lesson of the financial crisis 2007-09 is that the Bagehot Rule, “lend freely but at a high rate,” needs to be updated for the emerging market-based credit system. A modern rule is suggested: Markets, not Banks; Outside spread, not Inside spread; Core, not Periphery.

The joint dynamics of US net output, consumption, and (the market value of) foreign assets and liabilities, characterized empirically following Lettau and Ludvigson (2004), is shown to be consistent with current account theory. US consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks, while these contribute to variations in net output and gross foreign positions—consumption is smoothed against temporary fluctuations in returns. A single permanent shock—naturally interpreted as a supply shock—raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust gradually. This leads to persistent, procyclical external deficits, while moving gross assets and liabilities in the same direction. JEL: E21, E23, F32, F34

We consider competition between sellers selling multiple distinct products to a buyer having k slots. Under independent pricing, a pure strategy equilibrium often does not exist, and equilibrium in mixed strategy is never efficient. When bundling is allowed, each seller has an incentive to bundle his products, and an efficient “technology-renting” equilibrium always exists. Furthermore, in the case of digital goods or when sales below marginal cost are banned, all equilibria are efficient. Comparing the mixed-strategy equilibrium with the technology-renting equilibrium reveals that bundling often increases the buyer's surplus. Finally, we derive clear-cut policy implications.