Knowledge that Transforms

Evaluating a new survey of German consumers, we test whether individual consumption spending decisions are formed according to a Euler equation model. We find that consumers are more likely to increase current spending if they plan to increase spending in the future and if they expect higher inflation. In the subsample of financially literate households, we find an additional negative effect of nominal interest rate expectations. The effects of macroeconomic expectations become stronger if consumers observed news on monetary policy or financial markets. These news effects are particularly pronounced for consumers who save and those with low inflation forecast accuracy.

We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders in the United States to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. We present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses.

This paper analyzes the effect of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 on structural transformation at the local level, exploiting cross-sectional variation in tariff uncertainty faced by county economies pre-2001. Using a new panel of 1,800 Chinese counties from 1996 to 2013, we find that counties more exposed to the reduction in tariff uncertainty postaccession are characterized by increased exports and foreign direct investment, shrinking agricultural sectors, expanding secondary sectors, and higher total and per capita GDP. In addition, when labor substitutes from nonagricultural to agricultural production in counties exposed to positive trade shocks, agricultural output declines.

We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.

This paper investigates how different forms of exposure to refugees affect voting for Far Right parties. I study the state of Upper Austria where many municipalities hosted asylum seekers and also experienced a massive flow of refugees crossing into Germany in 2015. Exposure to refugees passing through border municipalities increased Far Right votes by about 1.5 percentage points, which suggests that mere exposure can increase Far Right support. Conversely, contact and sustained interactions between natives and asylum seekers in hosting municipalities decreased Far Right votes by about 4 percentage points, which is in line with the intergroup contact theory.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesFull TextPDF Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Rajesh AggarwalLinda ArgoteRuediger BachmannJesse BackstromMartha BaileyDavid BaqaeeNicholas BarberisJean Noel BarrotShai BernsteinJavier BianchiAdrien BilalAlberto BisinAaron Bodoh-CreedAlessandro BonattiAlec BrandonThomas BuserLuigi ButeraJian CaiSteven CallanderRossella CalviOzan CandoganTimothy CasonSylvain ChassangHailiang ChenGabe Chodorow-ReichSouphala ChomsisengphetOlivier CoibionFabrice CollardJonathan ColmerLin William CongThomas CovertFlavio CunhaJan De LoeckerMark DeanPablo D’ErasmoRebecca Dizon-RossWioletta DziudaCatherine EckelNiklas EngbomChristine ExleyBenjamin FaberJesús Fernández-VillaverdeTeresa FortAlexander FrankelCary FrydmanOded GalorNicolae GârleanuNicolas Gendron-CarrierMatthew GentzkowBenjamin GolubGreer GosnellDavid GreenDaniel GreenwaldAdam GurenKareem HaggagMarina HalacMoshe HazanRandi HjalmarssonTom HoldenJustin HolzBo HonoréPeter HullDaniel HungermanErik HurstYoko IbukaEthan IlzetzkiYannis IoannidesOleg ItskhokiPhilippe JehielYoon JoJustin JohnsonMarcin KacperczykMatthias KehrigToru KitagawaNobuhiro KiyotakiAnton KorinekFabian KosseJoshua KriegerDarius LakdawallaTim LandvoigtJean-François LaslierMin Sok LeeEdwin LeuvenIlse LindenlaubMatthew LindquistLance LochnerMichael LovenheimYang LuUlrike MalmendierGonzalo MaturanaRosa MatzkinAndrew McClellanMichael McMahonKonrad MenzelBruce MeyerMoritz Meyer-ter-VehnPascal MichaillatKris MitchenerJarle MoenChristian MoserIsmael MourifiéJoseph MullinsCharles MurryScott NelsonLars NesheimDavid NeumarkSam NorrisDavid NovgorodskyMichaela PagelMallesh PaiAlessandro PavanJacopo PeregoNicola PersicoMichael PetersLaura PilossophIvan PngRobert PollakFranck PortierMichael PowellAndrea PratErik PrawitzLouis PuttermanMarek PyciaNancy QianVincenzo QuadriniJoão RamosA. ReynosoThomas RiveraArthur RobsonGuillaume RocheteauSutanuka RoyAnya SamekEstefania Santacreu-VasutEdouard SchaalSam Schulhofer-WohlJesse ShapiroRobin SicklesHolger SiegJoel SobelFrancesco SquintaniDouglas StaigerVincent SterkJoel StiebaleHelmut StixPhilip StrahanDavid StrombergMathieu Taschereau-DumouchelKonstantinos TatsiramosMarko TervioPetra ToddMartin UribeWinnie van DijkFrederic VermeulenXavier VivesPaul WillenChen YehJungwon YeoJunjian YiH. YoungMinchul YumYifan ZhangJin ZhouFabrizio ZilibottiGabriel Zucman Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 129, Number 3March 2021 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/714170 Views: 540 © 2021 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two YearsPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two Years Outcome of 1st Round DecisionsMean Days to DecisionMedian Days to DecisionDecision Later than Six Months after Submission (as percentage of decisions within decision type)Desk Rejection53%970%Reject with Reviews38%12210615%Revise9%19116947%Average time from original submission to acceptance (omitting time with author in revision) = 452 days View Table Image Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 129, Number 9September 2021 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/716447 Views: 765 © 2021 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Daniel AaronsonMartin AbelJerome AddaNikhil AgarwalMohammad AkbarpourRobert AkerlofIngvild AlmåsNabil Al-NajjarJoshua AngristOlof ÅslundEduardo AzevedoMartha BaileyMiguel BallesterDaniel BarronMarco BattagliniPatrick BayerMarianne BertrandTimothy BesleyManudeep BhullerNicolas BottanGiulia BrancaccioGreg BuchakLeonardo BursztynCharles CalomirisColin CamererOzan CandoganAndrew CaplinBharat ChandarGabe Chodorow-ReichGregory ClarkJulien CombeDiego CominAnna CostelloNatalie CoxDavid CutlerEduardo DavilaAlexandre de CornièreMonique De HaanEddie DekelMelissa DellEllora DerenoncourtManasi DeshpandeDouglas DiamondMichael DinersteinMatthias DoepkeChristian DustmannMatt ElliottHanming FangPeter FeldhutterPrice FishbackChristopher FlinnMarco FrancesconiAlexander FrankelPeter FredrikssonEric FrenchMarkus FroelichCary FrydmanJana GallusPeter GanongRobert GibbonsVincent GlodeUri GneezyMarion GousséDavid GreenMatthew GrennanFaruk GulPhilip HaileBarton HamiltonSamuel HartzmarkYinghua HeDavidson HeathBernard HerskovicFlorian HoffmannChristopher HousePeter HullJohn Eric HumphriesTullio JappelliMatthew JaremskiYuichiro KamadaLouis KaplowPinar Karaca-MandicKei KawaiMichael KeenScott KominersFabian KosseDorothea KüblerMarianna KudlyakAndreas LangeRenata LemosMoritz LenelKenneth LeonardArthur LewbelAnnie LiangLee LockwoodCorinne LowRalph LuettickeYao LuoMatteo MaggioriMihai ManeaYusufcan MasatliogluFabrizio MattesiniAlisdair McKayRobert McMillanMarc MelitzKonstantin MilbradtYuliyan MitkovJoshua MollnerJohn MondragonJoan MonrasJosé Montiel OleaThayer MorrillStephen MorrisAdair MorseJack MountjoyIsmael MourifiéXiaosheng MuJoseph MullinsKarthik NagarajanGaston NavarroChristopher NeilsonKevin NovanGuillermo OrdoñezJuan OrtnerMonica PaiellaJuan PantanoJonathan ParkerFernando ParroChristina PattersonPia PingerDevin PopeFranck PortierDavide ProserpioJohn QuahRicardo Quineche UribeValerie RameyNatalia RamondoPascual RestrepoAlbrecht RitschlSteven RivkinJames RobinsonGuillaume RocheteauKnut RøedEvan RoseEsteban Rossi-HansbergMarzena RostekJohn RustAldo RustichiniEvan SadlerRaffaella SadunYuval SalantBatchimeg SambalaibatHeather SarsonsMaximilian SchaeferRichard SchmalenseeBenjamin SchoeferChristoph SchottmuellerKarl SchurterFiona Scott MortonJoseph ShapiroMatthew ShapiroYotam Shem-TovAli ShouridehMichael SimkovicAndrey SimonovJeff SmithAlexandre SollaciRachel SoloveichikPaulo SomainiZheng SongIsaac SorkinPedro SouzaFrancesco SquintaniVictor StangoMatthias SutterMarco TabelliniSteven TadelisIna TanevaFelix TintelnotJean TiroleAlexander TorgovitskyKenneth TroskeBertil TungoddenSergio UrzúaJohn Van ReenenVictoria VanascoGreg VeramendiLise VesterlundAlessandra VoenaJonathan VogelFabian WaldingerChristopher WaltersMichael WeberJonathan WeinsteinDaniel WilhelmThomas WinberryChristian WolfGavin WrightBernard YeungAli YurukogluBasit ZafarGiulio ZanellaOren ZivUlf Zoelitz Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 129, Number 5May 2021 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/715534 Views: 238 © 2021 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.