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Banking prudentials, leverage, and innovation partnership choice in China

Journal of Banking & Finance 2025 171, 107347 open access
In a theoretical context where innovators borrow loans or settle for state-owned enterprise (SOE) sponsorship for their projects, we examine the effects of banking prudential regulations and their interaction with corporate leverage on the patenting partnership choice in China using a unique matched patent-firm-bank loan dataset for 15,623 observations in the 2013–17 period. We use a unique instrumental variable (IV) strategy to identify idiosyncratic bank prudential reform shocks associated with the post-2012 Basel III regulation and find prudential metrics (corporate leverage) of the financiers (firms) to positively (negatively) influence SOE patenting partnership choice, though prudential regulation mitigates the latter. Prudential reforms therefore come at a cost of further SOE dominance. However, conditional on an innovation project being SOE sponsored, we find positive spillover effect from the SOE’s employment mandate to loan productivity. Our results are robust across different IV strategies, alternative measures, sub-sample and mechanism analyses.

Interbank contagion: An agent-based model approach to endogenously formed networks

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 112, 105191
The potential impact of interconnected financial institutions on interbank financial systems is a financial stability concern for central banks and regulators. In examining how financial shocks propagate through contagion effects, we argue that endogenous individual bank choices are necessary to properly consider how losses develop as the interbank lending network evolves. We present an agent-based model to endogenously reconstruct interbank networks based on 6600 banks’ decision rules and behaviors reflected in quarterly balance sheets. We compare the results of our model to the results of a traditional stationary network framework for contagion. The model formulation reproduces dynamics similar to those of the 2007–09 financial crisis and shows how bank losses and failures arise from network contagion and lending market illiquidity. When calibrated to post-crisis data from 2011 to 2014, the model shows the U.S. banking system has reduced its likelihood of bank failures through network contagion and illiquidity, given a similar stress scenario.

The liquidity impact on firm values: The evidence of Taiwan's banking industry

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 82, 191-202
Liquidity plays an important role in financial markets, especially during a financial crisis. New Basel III regulatory framework highlights the importance of liquidity risk management implemented by financial institutions. Moreover, updated International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require the improvements about fair value measurements and reinforce existing principles for disclosures about the liquidity risk associated with financial instruments. Using the liquidity discount model of Chen (2012), we are able to empirically classify Taiwan's financial institutions into three liquidity categories: safe, crisis contagious and vulnerable. Our findings can serve as an early warning signal for liquidity calamity. In addition, we investigate what factors affect firm-specific liquidity discounts for these institutions and conduct a sub-period analysis, which examines whether there is significant liquidity discounts changes before and after the 2008 financial crisis. We find that liquidity discounts change substantially during the financial crisis. Furthermore, we find that liquidity discounts can be attributed to some firm-specific performance.

Gone with the wind: An externality of earnings pressure

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2021 72(1), 101403
We investigate an externality of earnings pressure from capital markets. We define earnings pressure as managers’ incentives to meet or beat earnings expectations. Using detailed establishment-level sulfur dioxide emission data from China covering 2003 to 2012, we find that firms with earnings pressure have higher intensity sulfur dioxide emissions. This effect is more pronounced when the strength of monitoring and regulatory enforcement is weak, when litigation risk is low, and when the public firm is not mandated to issue a corporate social responsibility report. Our study sheds light on how financial goals may conflict with environmental goals, and has important implications for academics, regulators and society.

Do Individual Auditors Affect Audit Quality? Evidence from Archival Data

The Accounting Review 2013 88(6), 1993-2023 open access
We examine whether and how individual auditors affect audit outcomes using a large set of archival Chinese data. We analyze approximately 800 individual auditors and find that they exhibit significant variation in audit quality. The effects that individual auditors have on audit quality are both economically and statistically significant, and are pronounced in both large and small audit firms. We also find that the individual auditor effects on audit quality can be partially explained by auditor characteristics, such as educational background, Big N audit firm experience, rank in the audit firm, and political affiliation. Our findings highlight the importance of scrutinizing and understanding audit quality at the individual auditor level. Data Availability: Data used in this study are publicly available from the sources described herein.

Monitors or Predators: The Influence of Institutional Investors on Sell-Side Analysts

The Accounting Review 2013 88(1), 137-169
Regulators and the investment community have been concerned that institutional investors pressure financial analysts through trading commission fees to issue optimistic opinions in support of their stock positions. We use a unique dataset that identifies mutual fund companies' allocation of trading commission fees to individual brokerages and provide direct evidence on this issue. In particular, we show that for stocks in which the fund companies have taken large positions, analysts are more optimistic in their stock recommendations when their brokerages receive trading commission fees from these fund companies. The relationship is stronger when the commission fee pressure is greater. The market reacts less favorably to the “Strong Buy” recommendations of analysts facing greater commission fee pressure. The funds also respond negatively to such recommendations in making portfolio adjustments. These results point to a source of analyst bias that has been little explored in the literature. Data Availability: The data are publically available from the sources identified in the paper.

Discontinued Positive Feedback Trading and the Decline of Return Predictability

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(7), 3062-3100 open access
We show that demand effects generated by institutional frictions can influence systematic return predictability patterns in stocks and mutual funds. Identification relies on a reform to the Morningstar rating system, which we show caused a structural break in style-level positive feedback trading by mutual funds. As a result, momentum-related factors in stocks, as well as performance persistence and the “dumb money effect” in mutual funds, experienced a sharp decline. Consistent with the proposed channel, return predictability declined right after the reform, was limited to the U.S. market, and was concentrated in factors and mutual funds most exposed to the mechanism.

From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The art and AI of stock analyses

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 160, 103910 open access
An AI analyst trained to digest corporate disclosures, industry trends, and macroeconomic indicators surpasses most analysts in stock return predictions. Nevertheless, humans win ‘‘Man vs. Machine’’ when institutional knowledge is crucial, e.g., involving intangible assets and financial distress. AI wins when information is transparent but voluminous. Humans provide significant incremental value in ‘‘Man + Machine’’, which also substantially reduces extreme errors. Analysts catch up with machines after ‘‘alternative data’’ become available if their employers build AI capabilities. Documented synergies between humans and machines inform how humans can leverage their advantage for better adaptation to the growing AI prowess.

Pay me now (and later): Pension benefit manipulation before plan freezes and executive retirement

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 127(1), 152-173
Large US firms modify top executives’ compensation before pension-related events. Top executives receive one-time increases in pensionable earnings through higher annual bonuses one year before a plan freeze and one year before retirement. Firms also boost pension payouts by lowering plan discount rates when top executives are eligible to retire with lump-sum benefit distributions. Increases in executive pensions do not appear to be an attempt to improve managerial effort or retention and are more likely to occur at firms with poor corporate governance. These findings suggest that in some circumstances managers are able to extract rents through their pension plans.

Optimal Contracting, Corporate Finance, and Valuation with Inalienable Human Capital

Journal of Finance 2019 74(3), 1363-1429 open access
A risk‐averse entrepreneur with access to a profitable venture needs to raise funds from investors. She cannot indefinitely commit her human capital to the venture, which limits the firm's debt capacity, distorts investment and compensation, and constrains the entrepreneur's risk sharing. This puts dynamic liquidity and state‐contingent risk allocation at the center of corporate financial management. The firm balances mean‐variance investment efficiency and the preservation of financial slack. We show that in general the entrepreneur's net worth is overexposed to idiosyncratic risk and underexposed to systematic risk. These distortions are greater the closer the firm is to exhausting its debt capacity.