We propose a theory of banking in which banks cannot perfectly control deposit flows. Facing uninsurable loan and deposit shocks, banks dynamically manage lending, wholesale funding, deposits, and equity. Deposits create value by lowering funding costs. However, when the bank is undercapitalized and at risk of breaching leverage requirements, the marginal value of deposits can turn negative as deposit inflows, by raising leverage, increase the likelihood of costly equity issuance. Banks' inability to fully control leverage distinguishes them from nondepository intermediaries. Our model suggests a reevaluation of leverage regulations and offers new perspectives on banking in a low‐interest‐rate environment.

We examine the relationship between disclosure of nonfinancial information and analyst forecast accuracy using firm-level data from 31 countries. We use the issuance of stand-alone corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports to proxy for disclosure of nonfinancial information. We find that the issuance of stand-alone CSR reports is associated with lower analyst forecast error. This relationship is stronger in countries that are more stakeholder-oriented—i.e., in countries where CSR performance is more likely to affect firm financial performance. The relationship is also stronger for firms and countries with more opaque financial disclosure, suggesting that issuance of stand-alone CSR reports plays a role complementary to financial disclosure. These results hold after we control for various factors related to firm financial transparency and other potentially confounding institutional factors. Collectively, our findings have important implications for academics and practitioners in understanding the function of CSR disclosure in financial markets. Data Availability: The data are publicly available from the sources identified in the paper.

Building on recent research linking changes in housing prices to investors’ degree of risk aversion, we posit that there is a negative relation between growth in housing prices and a firm’s cost of equity capital. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that firms located in states with positive growth rates in housing prices exhibit lower costs of equity capital. We also observe that the effect of changes in housing prices is mainly driven by smaller firms. This housing effect is not only statistically significant but also economically important. Our results hold across various measures of growth rates in housing prices and are robust to controlling for potential biases due to measurement errors in estimating the implied cost of equity capital. This study is the first to establish an association between growth rates in housing prices and firms’ cost of equity capital. It also contributes to the emerging literature on the economic importance of a firm’s geographic location.

Social scientists have long viewed the decision to protest as strategic, with an individual's participation a function of their beliefs about others' turnout. We conduct a framed field experiment that recalibrates individuals' beliefs about others' protest participation, in the context of Hong Kong's ongoing antiauthoritarian movement. We elicit subjects' planned participation in an upcoming protest and their prior beliefs about others' participation, in an incentivized manner. One day before the protest, we randomly provide a subset of subjects with truthful information about others' protest plans and elicit posterior beliefs about protest turnout, again in an incentivized manner. After the protest, we elicit subjects' actual participation. This allows us to identify the causal effects of positively and negatively updated beliefs about others' protest participation on subjects' own turnout. In contrast with the assumptions of many recent models of protest participation, we consistently find evidence of strategic substitutability. We provide guidance regarding plausible sources of strategic substitutability that can be incorporated into theoretical models of protests.

We examine a potential benefit associated with the initiation of voluntary disclosure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities: a reduction in firms’ cost of equity capital. We find that firms with a high cost of equity capital in the previous year tend to initiate disclosure of CSR activities in the current year and that initiating firms with superior social responsibility performance enjoy a subsequent reduction in the cost of equity capital. Further, initiating firms with superior social responsibility performance attract dedicated institutional investors and analyst coverage. Moreover, these analysts achieve lower absolute forecast errors and dispersion. Finally, we find that firms exploit the benefit of a lower cost of equity capital associated with the initiation of CSR disclosure. Initiating firms are more likely than non-initiating firms to raise equity capital following the initiations; among firms raising equity capital, initiating firms raise a significantly larger amount than do non-initiating firms.

We investigate whether air pollution affects household stock market participation. Using representative household survey data in China, we find that households significantly reduce their financial risk taking when exposed to heavy air pollution. This finding is robust to an instrumental variable analysis and a regression discontinuity test based on the Huai River policy. To explore the underlying mechanisms, we find that air pollution significantly impairs health, increases unemployment risk, impedes cognitive performance, and dampens mood. We further show that these channels explain a non-trivial proportion of the relationship between air pollution and stock market participation. Our study sheds light on the far-reaching influence of air pollution on households’ well-being from the perspective of portfolio choice.

Despite the importance of the personal income tax around the world, little is known about its impact on innovation. We construct a large database of inventors who patented at publicly listed companies during the 2008–2016 period and exploit the revised Personal Income Tax (PIT) Law of 2011 in China as a quasi-natural experiment to establish the causal effect of the personal income tax on corporate innovation. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that a lower personal income tax rate has a significantly positive impact on patent quantity and quality. Further, the revised PIT Law raises the efficiency of R&D activities, induces more explorative innovation, and improves the success rate of patent applications, providing consistent evidence for the intentional effort channel. Moreover, this positive innovation effect is more pronounced in firms with an R&D team that is more sensitive to the salary incentive system, greater innovation dependence, better governance, and firms located in regions with better innovation environments. Taken together, our findings shed light on how inventors and firms respond to decreasing personal income tax rates and confirm that the net return to innovation can be vital to the innovation capacity of firms.

This paper investigates whether beauty, an important natural endowment, affects investment decisions. Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Survey (WLS), which provides a photo-based measure of facial beauty, we find that better-looking individuals are more likely to own stocks and invest a larger share of wealth in stocks. We consider a wide range of potential mediators that may drive this relationship between beauty and stock market participation. We find that income and sociability explain a large portion of the beauty effect. For both males and females, beauty has a significant positive impact on stock market participation. Using another dataset that includes the interviewer's rating of the respondent's physical attractiveness, we find similar results. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the economic returns to beauty and the source of heterogeneity in household portfolio choice.

In 2017, “The Big Three” institutional investors launched campaigns to increase gender diversity on corporate boards. We estimate that their campaigns led American corporations to add at least 2.5 times as many female directors in 2019 as they had in 2016. Firms increased diversity by identifying candidates beyond managers’ existing networks and by placing less emphasis on candidates’ executive experience. Firms also promoted more female directors to key board positions, indicating firms’ responses went beyond tokenism. Our results highlight index investors’ ability to effectuate broad-based governance changes and the impact of investor buy-in in increasing corporate-leadership diversity.

This study examines whether information revealed by firms’ earnings announcements (EAs) forecasts short-run market-wide volatility in equity index prices. Using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model that includes controls for the information in an array of macroeconomic announcements, we find that EA information aggregated across firms forecasts market volatility at daily and weekly intervals. EA information’s forecasting power is greatest when more firms announce earnings on a given day, when EAs convey negative news, and for EA information about core earnings. Out-of-sample tests confirm that forecasts incorporating EA information better predict short-run market volatility than forecasts omitting EA information. We conclude that firm-level EAs are a significant source of systematic, market-wide information relevant for predicting near-term market volatility. Data Availability: All data are publicly available from sources cited in the text.