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Housing Speculation and Investment in Children’s Education: Evidence from House Purchase Restrictions in China

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2026
Housing and human capital represent two major forms of household wealth. This article investigates the potential for housing speculation to crowd out household investment in children’s education, an endeavor that only pays off in the long run. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit the unintended spillover effect of staggered house purchase restrictions (HPR) in China. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that HPR reduce educational investment of households in nearby unregulated cities. We also provide evidence consistent with a housing speculation channel. These findings shed new light on the socioeconomic consequences of housing market booms.

Trade liberalization and municipal financing costs

Journal of Banking & Finance 2025 178, 107524
This study examines the effects of trade liberalization on municipal financing costs. Using the granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China as an exogenous shock, we find that U.S. counties that are more exposed to trade liberalization issue bonds with significantly higher tax-adjusted yield spreads. Moreover, these counties pay higher gross spreads and are less likely to issue bonds after PNTR. We also show that secondary market yield spreads increase significantly in response to the U.S. granting of PNTR to China. In addition, we provide evidence that a reduction in debt serving capacity serves as a channel underlying the trade shock effects. Our findings highlight the costs of trade liberalization for public finance.