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How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2020 10(4), 834-862 open access
Utilizing transaction-level financial data, we explore how household consumption responded to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As case numbers grew and cities and states enacted shelter-in-place orders, Americans began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. In the first half of March 2020, individuals increased total spending by over 40% across a wide range of categories. This was followed by a decrease in overall spending of 25%–30% during the second half of March coinciding with the disease spreading, with only food delivery and grocery spending as major exceptions to the decline. Spending responded most strongly in states with active shelter-in-place orders, though individuals in all states had sizable responses. We find few differences across individuals with differing political beliefs, but households with children or low levels of liquidity saw the largest declines in spending during the latter part of March.

Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments

Review of Finance 2023 27(6), 2271-2304 open access
The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze households’ spending responses using data from a Fintech nonprofit, exploring heterogeneity by income, recent income declines, and liquidity as well as linked survey responses about economic expectations. Households respond rapidly to payments, with spending increasing by about $0.14 per dollar during the first week and plateauing around 0.25–0.30 over 3 months. In contrast to previous stimulus programs, we see little response of durables spending. Households with lower incomes, greater income declines, and less liquidity display stronger responses whereas households that expect employment losses and benefit cuts display weaker responses.