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Value-at-risk vs. building block regulation in banking

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2004 13(2), 96-131
Existing regulatory capital requirements are often criticized for only being loosely linked to the economic risk of the banks' assets. In view of the attempts of international regulators to introduce more risk sensitive capital requirements, we theoretically examine the effect of specific regulatory capital requirements on the risk-taking behavior of banks. More precisely, we develop a continuous time framework where the banks' choice of asset risk is endogenously determined. We compare regulation based on the Basel I building block approach to value-at-risk or ‘internal model’-based capital requirements with respect to risk taking behavior, deposit insurance liability, and shareholder value. The main findings are: (i) value-at-risk-based capital regulation creates a stronger incentive to reduce asset risk when banks are solvent, (ii) solvent banks that reduce their asset risk reduce the current value of the deposit insurance liability significantly, (iii) under value-at-risk regulation the risk reduction behavior of banks is less sensitive to changes in their investment opportunity set, and (iv) banks' equityholders can benefit from risk-based capital requirements.

Disentangling diffusion from jumps

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 74(3), 487-528
Realistic models for financial asset prices used in portfolio choice, option pricing or risk management include both a continuous Brownian and a jump components. This paper studies our ability to distinguish one from the other. I find that, surprisingly, it is possible to perfectly disentangle Brownian noise from jumps. This is true even if, unlike the usual Poisson jumps, the jump process exhibits an infinite number of small jumps in any finite time interval, which ought to be harder to distinguish from Brownian noise, itself made up of many small moves.

The three pillars of Basel II: optimizing the mix

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2004 13(2), 132-155
The on-going reform of the Basel Accord relies on three “pillars”: a new capital adequacy requirement, supervisory review and market discipline. This article develops a simple continuous-time model of commercial banks' behavior where interaction between these three instruments can be analyzed. We study the conditions under which market discipline can reduce the minimum capital requirements needed to prevent moral hazard. We also discuss regulatory forbearance issues.

Can Labor Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2004 119(1), 91-134
This paper investigates whether the industrial relations climate in Indian states has affected the pattern of manufacturing growth in the period 1958–1992. We show that states which amended the Industrial Disputes Act in a pro-worker direction experienced lowered output, employment, investment, and productivity in registered or formal manufacturing. In contrast, output in unregistered or informal manufacturing increased. Regulating in a pro-worker direction was also associated with increases in urban poverty. This suggests that attempts to redress the balance of power between capital and labor can end up hurting the poor.

Match Bias in Wage Gap Estimates Due to Earnings Imputation

Journal of Labor Economics 2004 22(3), 689-722
About 30% of workers in the Current Population Survey have earnings imputed. Wage gap estimates are biased toward zero when the attribute being studied (e.g., union status) is not a criterion used to match donors to nonrespondents. An expression for “match bias” is derived in which attenuation equals the sum of match error rates. Attenuation can be approximated by the proportion with imputed earnings. Union wage gap estimates with match bias removed are presented for 1973–2001. Estimates for recent years are biased downward 5 percentage points. Bias in gap estimates accompanying other non–match criteria (public sector, industry, etc.) is examined.

Mergers and Acquisitions: An Experimental Analysis of Synergies, Externalities and Dynamics

Review of Finance 2004 8(4), 481-514
Mergers and acquisitions improve market efficiency by capturing synergies between firms. But takeovers also impose externalities (both positive and negative) on the remaining firms in the industry. This paper describes a new equilibrium concept designed to explain and predict takeovers in this setting. We experimentally compare the new equilibrium concept to that of competing con-cepts in situations without and with externalities. Moreover, we examine the predicted dynamics of takeovers and outcome implications of those dynamics. Our experimental results support the predictions of the new equilibrium concept and provide implications for further empirical tests. 1.

Predictable Investment Horizons and Wealth Transfers among Mutual Fund Shareholders

Journal of Finance 2004 59(5), 1979-2012
This study analyzes the distribution of investment horizons in a large, proprietary panel of all shareholders in one no‐load mutual fund family. A proportional hazards model shows that there are observable shareholder characteristics that enable the fund to predict reliably on the day each account is opened whether the account will be short term or long term. Simulations show that the liquidity costs imposed on the fund by the expected short‐term shareholders are significantly greater than those imposed by the expected long‐term shareholders. Combining these results, the analysis argues that mutual funds do not provide equitable liquidity‐risk insurance.

Wages, Sorting on Skill, and the Racial Composition of Jobs

Journal of Labor Economics 2004 22(1), 189-210
Wages for black and white workers are substantially lower in occupations with a high density of black employees, following standard controls. Such correlations can exist absent discrimination or as a result of discrimination. In wage level equations, partial correlations fall sharply after controlling for occupational skills. Longitudinal estimates accounting for worker heterogeneity indicate little wage change associated with changes in racial composition. Results support a “quality sorting” rather than discrimination explanation, with racial density serving as an index of unmeasured skills. Discrimination reflected in racial wage gaps occurs within occupations or across occupations in a manner uncorrelated with racial composition.

Mergers and Acquisitions: An Experimental Analysis of Synergies, Externalities and Dynamics

Review of Finance 2004 8(4), 481-514 open access
Mergers and acquisitions improve market efficiency by capturing synergies between firms. But takeovers also impose externalities (both positive and negative) on the remaining firms in the industry. This paper describes a new equilibrium concept designed to explain and predict takeovers in this setting. We experimentally compare the new equilibrium concept to that of competing concepts in situations without and with externalities. Moreover, we examine the predicted dynamics of takeovers and outcome implications of those dynamics. Our experimental results support the predictions of the new equilibrium concept and provide implications for further empirical tests.