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How Important Are Banks for Development? National Banks in the United States, 1870–1900

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2015 97(5), 921-938 open access
Do banks matter for growth, and if so, how? This paper examines the effects of national banks in the United States from 1870 to 1900. I use the discontinuity in entry caused by a large minimum size requirement to identify the effects of banking. For the counties on the margin between getting a bank and not, gaining a bank increased production per person by 10%. National banks in rural areas improved agriculture over manufacturing, moving counties toward geographic comparative advantage. Since these banks made few long-term loans, the evidence suggests that the provision of working capital and liquidity matters for growth

The Effects of Changes in Local Bank Health on Household Consumption

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2021
This study investigates the relationship between credit availability and household consumption using a novel approach to separate credit demand and supply. We find that a deterioration in local-bank health reduces household consumption, with the strongest effects occurring for households that are more likely to need credit—especially those experiencing a negative income shock and having limited liquid assets. The main contributions of the study are the use of an arguably exogenous measure of local-bank health and multifaceted indicators of constrained households. Our findings contribute to the discussion of the linkages between the financial sector and real economic activity

Trust in Lending

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024
We develop a theory of trust in lending that distinguishes between reputation and trust. Banks emerge as more trusted lenders than non-banks. We show that trust severs the link between performance and the cost and availability of financing for lenders, but trust can be lost and is difficult to regain. Banks survive an erosion of trust better than non-banks. Banks' trust advantage arises from the lower cost of funding due to insured deposits and an endogenous belief revision channel that complements the effect of the funding cost advantage. The results have novel policy relevance for deposit insurance scope

Relationship Lending and the Great Depression

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2021 103(3), 505-520 open access
The collapse of long-term lending relationships amplified the Great Depression. We demonstrate this by developing a new measure of lending relationships that can be calculated from widely available data at any level of aggregation. Our approach exploits differences in the responsiveness of loan rates to bank funding costs and is supported by historical evidence and theoretical arguments. The new measure reveals that the marginal impact of bank suspensions on economic activity was higher in more relationship-intensive areas, providing the first formal evidence that relationship lending propagated the real effects of banking sector distress in the early 1930s

The U.S. Money Market and the Term Auction Facility in the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2011 93(2), 617-631
The interbank money market in the United States and Europe became turbulent during the financial crisis of 2007–2009, with the counterparty default risk premiums and liquidity premiums of short-term financing among major financial institutions rising sharply to unprecedented levels. Using various measures of macroeconomic and financial risks, I find that the surges in counterparty risk premiums were predominantly driven by heightened uncertainties about the macroeconomy and financial market, as well as underlying mortgage default risks. The new liquidity facility that the Federal Reserve established, the Term Auction Facility, significantly relieved the strains in the money market, primarily through lowering banks' liquidity concerns. Its effect on the counterparty risk premiums, however, has been quite limited

Credit Standards and Segregation

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2016 98(5), 880-896
This paper explores the effects of changes in lending standards on racial segregation within metropolitan areas. Such changes affect neighborhood choices as well as aggregate prices and quantities in the housing market. Using the credit boom of 2000 to 2006 as a large-scale experiment, we put forward an IV strategy that predicts the relaxation of credit standards as the result of a credit supply shock predominantly affecting liquidity-constrained banks. The relaxed lending standards led to significant outflows of whites from black and racially mixed neighborhoods. Without such a credit supply shock, black households would have had between 2.3 and 5.1 percentage points more white neighbors in 2010