Knowledge that Transforms

Our main goal is to quantify the returns to a career in the United States Congress. We specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of Congress andestimate this model using a newly collected dataset. Given estimates of the structural model, we assess reelection probabilities, estimate the effect of congressional experience on private and public sector wages, and quantify the value of a congressional seat. Moreover, we assess how an increase in the congressional wage or the imposition of term limits would affect the career decisions of politicians and the returns from a career in Congress.

We provide a unified theory of the transition in income, life expectancy, education, and population size from a nondeveloped environment to sustained growth. Individuals optimally trade off the time cost of education with its lifetime returns. Initially, low longevity implies a prohibitive cost for human capital formation for most individuals. A positive feedback loop between human capital and increasing longevity, triggered by endogenous skill-biased technological progress, eventually provides sufficient returns for widespread education. The transition is not based on scale effects and induces population growth despite unchanged fertility. A simulation illustrates that the dynamics fit historical data patterns.

Researchers perpetually complain about long decision lags. Glenn Ellison (2002a,b) confirms that delays are being longer. He suggests an evolving social norm as a possible explanation, with more demands made on authors for their work to be published. Time delays have the additional effect, however, of limiting the flow of submissions. In the absence of time delays and other significant submission costs, the best strategy is to start at the most prestigious journal and work down until the article is accepted. Better journals are unlikely to welcome this. The major submission cost is the long and unpredictable length of time spent waiting for a decision. Ellison notes that time lags are longer for the top five economics journals, at around six to eleven months longer than the rest. Despite the increasing prestige of top journals, the number of submissions remains fairly static.

Heterogeneous time preference has a profound impact on the wealth distribution and therefore on equilibrium asset prices. I identify two distinct effects on interest rates: an averaging effect due to Jensen’s inequality and a general equilibrium consumption timing effect. The averaging effect decreases and the timing effect increases real interest rates, and both effects induce an inverse term structure. More fundamentally, the model shows that asset prices need to be interpreted with caution. Evidence apparently pointing to non-standard preferences may simply be the result of heterogeneity.

Using data from the U.S. Decennial Census and the National Longitudinal Surveys, we find little evidence of differences in the return to schooling across racial and ethnic groups, even with attempts to control for ability and measurement error biases. While our point estimates are relatively similar across racial and ethnic groups, our conclusion is driven in part by relatively large standard errors. ; That said, we find no evidence that returns to schooling are lower for African Americans or Hispanics than for non-minorities. As a result, policies that increase education among the low-skilled have a good possibility of increasing economic well-being and reducing inequality. More generally, our analysis suggests further research is needed to better understand the nature of measurement error and ability bias across subgroups in order to fully understand potential heterogeneity in the return to schooling across the population.

This paper uses an estimated demand system that accounts for heterogeneity to calculate and compare the lost consumer surplus from a higher tax on gasoline, a tax on distance, or a subsidy for buying a newer car. We introduce a view of cost-effectiveness that compares policies instead of technologies. Each tax might induce some consumers to drive less, some to switch from two vehicles to one, and some to buy a car instead of an SUV. Our model captures these behaviors. For each rate of tax, we simulate the changes in all such choices and how the new choices affect emissions. We also calculate the equivalent variation and subtract tax revenue to get deadweight loss. Finally, we take the added deadweight loss over the additional abatement as the social marginal cost of abatement, and we plot this curve for several different tax policies.

Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources by Richard K. Green, Stephen Malpezzi and Stephen K. Mayo. Published in volume 95, issue 2, pages 334-339 of American Economic Review, May 2005

Theoretical work on experience goods sets out three empirical questions. How accurate is information at initial purchase? How rapidly do consumers learn from product experiences? And how much impact does learning have on purchase decisions? I answer these questions for the case of automobile insurance, using a panel of 18,595 consumers from one firm. My principal findings are: patterns of consumer departures following claims point to learning; consumers enter the firm overly optimistic about its quality and are generally disappointed by experience; and the impact of learning is mitigated by the slow arrival of claims and the development of lock-in.

The rapid growth in the number of foreign students enrolled in American universities has transformed the higher education system, particularly at the graduate level. Many of these newly minted doctorates remain in the United States after receiving their doctoral degrees, so that the foreign student influx can have a significant impact in the labor market for high-skill workers. Using data drawn from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the Survey of Doctoral Recipients, the study shows that a foreign student influx into a particular doctoral field at a particular time had a significant and adverse effect on the earnings of doctorates in that field who graduated at roughly the same time. A 10 percent immigration-induced increase in the supply of doctorates lowers the wage of competing workers by about 3 percent.

Why the Apple Doesn't Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux and Kjell G. Salvanes. Published in volume 95, issue 1, pages 437-449 of American Economic Review, March 2005