ABSTRACT We develop a measure of how information events impact investors' expectations of risk. The measure is broadly applicable and simple to implement. We derive it from an option‐pricing model, where investors anticipate an announcement that simultaneously conveys information on the announcer's expected future cash flows and risk profile. We empirically implement the measure using firms' earnings announcements, showing that it closely aligns with our model's predictions and offers strong forecasting power for firms' risk profiles, costs of capital, and future investments. We further highlight pitfalls of using simple changes in option‐implied volatilities to study information gleaned from earnings announcements. Finally, we apply our measure to study disclosure regulation, the efficacy of text‐based proxies, and market‐wide events, which we use to illustrate our measure's uses, and illuminate its potential limitations.

This paper re-examines the Ou and Penman (1989) conclusion that fundamental analysis identifies equity values not currently reflected in stock prices, and thus systematically predicts abnormal returns. Their fundamental summary measure Pr, the estimated probability of an earnings increase, also proxies for firm size and CAPM risk. After controlling cross-sectional differences in CAPM beta and firm size, no significant incremental predictive ability is attributable to Pr. The Pr measure is interpreted as a proxy for expected return differences rather than as new evidence of a systematic market underreaction to the future earnings signal inherent in current financial statements.

Abnormal returns (market model prediction errors) are the subject of many event studies in accounting and finance literature. Conditional on the event of interest, researchers have recently used cross-sectional regressions to examine relations between abnormal returns and firm specific variables. This paper demostrates that non-constant variences and covariances in market model residuals across firms introduced bias in the estimated slope coefficients of the independent variables, i.e., the expected signs of the estimated slope coefficients can be predicted a priori. A method is develope to removed the bias in the estimated slope coefficiets and is found to be effective. This method explicitly takes the dependence among abnormal returns across firms into account. Methods that assume abnormal returns across firms to be independent do not control for such bias.

Predicted stock issuers (PSIs) are firms with expected high-investment and low-profit profiles that earn extremely low returns. We evaluate alternative explanations for this empirical phenomenon. Our results show top-PSI firms are cash-strapped, have lottery-like payoffs, high volatility, high beta, low liquidity, and high shorting costs. Over the next 2 years, top-PSI firms earn return on assets of −30% per year, report disappointing earnings, and experience strongly negative forecast revisions. They perform poorly in down markets and are six times more likely to delist for performance-related reasons. Overall, we find substantial support for mispricing, some support for nonstandard preferences, and virtually no support for the risk explanation. (JEL G12, G14, G32, G40, G41) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

As discussed in Merton (1993, Sections 5 and 6) and here in the section to follow, the effective delivery of many financial services depends critically on the credit-worthiness of the provider financial institution. Such service activities are said to be 'credit-sensitive'. The intermediary's credit standing can cause significant extemality-like effects on the various business activities of the intermediary, even when there are no interconnections among them. For example, the announcement by a U.S. investment bank that it is even thinking of entering into a new merchant-banking activity of extending bridge financing and other interim risk-taking positioning for restructuring firms can materially and negatively affect its over-the-counter derivatives-products business for corporate customers because those customers may perceive the risk of the merchant-banking involvement as jeopardizing the bank's ability to fulfill its obligations on its long-dated contractual agreements. Thus the potential merchant-banking business affects the derivative-products business although there is no overlap of personnel, customer base, location, or employee skill sets between them. The shared credit standing of the institution's individual businesses can therefore cause a significant failure ofthe principle of 'value-additivity', which complicates decentralization of the capital budgeting and financial decisions. The issue of monitoring credit quality are made more complex because those intermediaries such as banks and insurance companies that are principals to customer contractual agreements tend to be 'opaque' institutions, as defined in Ross (1989) and Merton

This paper analyzes dual trading on futures contracts restricted by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Rule 552. Using floor trader data, several categories of traders are identified, and differences in strategies and profitability are examined. When unrestricted, dual traders execute most customer orders and few personal trades. The evidence supports the hypothesis that dual traders are superior brokers. However, there is no evidence of informational advantages in dual traders' personal trading. Dual traders are shown to provide liquidity with their personal trades. Finally, Rule 552 does not appear to have increased trading costs.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: G12, G13, D82.

We examine the role of race and racial concordance between financial advisors and their local community. We document significant differences in stock market participation based on community racial composition, as well as differences in the characteristics of communities served by minority advisors. Notably, minority advisors are more likely to serve racially concordant communities, which tend to be poorer. We find that racial concordance has only a modest relation with local stock market participation. However, while minority advisors are more likely to leave the industry, this relation is mitigated among advisors located in more concordant communities. (JEL G20, G50, D14, J15)

Journal Article Lemmas for a Theory of Approximate Optimal Growth Get access C. C. von Weizsäcker C. C. von Weizsäcker University of Heidelberg Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 34, Issue 1, January 1967, Pages 143–151, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296575 Published: 01 January 1967

Journal Article Tentative Notes on a Two Sector Model with Induced Technical Progress Get access C. C. von Weizsäcker C. C. von Weizsäcker University of Heidelberg, Germany Alfred Weber Institut Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 33, Issue 3, July 1966, Pages 245–251, https://doi.org/10.2307/2974418 Published: 01 July 1966

I examine three composite analyst forecast of earnings per share as proxies for expected earnings. The most current forecast weakly dominates the mean and median forecasts in accuracy. This is evidence that forecast dates are more relevant for determining accuracy than individual error. Consistent with previous research, I find analysts more accurate than time-series models. However prior knowledge of forecast errors from a quarterly autoregressive model predicts excess stock returns better than prior knowledge of analysts' errors. This is inconsistent with previous research, and is anomalous given analysts' greater accuracy.