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The Caloric Costs of Culture: Evidence from Indian Migrants

American Economic Review 2016 106(4), 1144-1181
Anthropologists have documented substantial and persistent differences in food preferences across social groups. My paper asks whether such food cultures can constrain caloric intake? I first document that interstate migrants within India consume fewer calories per rupee of food expenditure compared to their neighbors. Second, I show that migrants bring their origin-state food preferences with them. Third, I link these findings by showing that the gap in caloric intake between locals and migrants depends on the suitability and intensity of the migrants' origin-state preferences. The most affected migrants would consume seven percent more calories if they possessed their neighbors' preferences. (JEL D12, I12, O15, R23, Z12, Z13)

Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico

American Economic Review 2016 106(8), 2046-2085 open access
This paper presents empirical evidence that the growth of export manufacturing in Mexico during a period of major trade reforms (the years 1986 to 2000) altered the distribution of education. I use variation in the timing of factory openings across commuting zones to show that school drop-out increased with local expansions in export-manufacturing industries. The magnitudes I find suggest that for every 25 jobs created, one student dropped out of school at grade 9 rather than continuing through to grade 12. These effects are driven by less-skilled export-manufacturing jobs which raised the opportunity cost of schooling for students at the margin. (JEL F14, F16, J24, L60, O14, O19)

Trade, Tastes, and Nutrition in India

American Economic Review 2013 103(5), 1629-1663
This paper explores the causes and consequences of regional taste differences. I introduce habit formation into a standard general equilibrium model. Household tastes evolve over time to favor foods consumed as a child. Thus, locally abundant foods are preferred in every region, as they were relatively inexpensive in prior generations. These patterns alter the correspondence between price changes and nutrition. For example, neglecting this relationship between tastes and agro-climatic endowments overstates the short-run nutritional gains from agricultural trade liberalization, since preferred foods rise in price in every region. I examine the model's predictions using household survey data from many regions of India. (JEL D12, I12, O12, O18, R23)

Globalization and the Ladder of Development: Pushed to the Top or Held at the Bottom?

Review of Economic Studies 2026 93(3), 1455-1493
We study the relationship between international trade and development in a model where countries differ in their capability, goods differ in their complexity, and capability growth is a function of a country’s pattern of specialization. Theoretically, we show that it is possible for international trade to increase capability growth in all countries and, in turn, to push all countries up the development ladder. This occurs if (i) shifting employment towards more complex sectors raises capability growth and if (ii) foreign competition is tougher in less complex sectors for all countries. Empirically, we provide causal evidence consistent with (i) using the entry of countries into the World Trade Organization as an instrumental variable for other countries’ patterns of specialization. The opposite of (ii), however, holds in the data. Through the lens of our model, these two empirical observations imply dynamic welfare losses from trade that are pervasive, albeit small for the median country. The same economic forces also suggest that the emergence of China has held back capability growth for a number of African countries who are pushed away from their most-complex sectors, which China exports, and into their least-complex sectors, which China imports.

Volatility and the Gains From Trade

Econometrica 2022 90(5), 2053-2092 open access
Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second‐moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro‐data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted their production toward crops with less volatile yields, especially so for those with poor access to risk mitigating technologies such as banks. We then characterize how volatility affects farmers' crop allocation using a portfolio choice framework where returns are determined in general equilibrium by a many‐location, many‐good Ricardian trade model with flexible trade costs. Finally, we structurally estimate the model—recovering farmers' risk‐return preferences from the gradient of the mean‐variance frontier at their observed crop choices—to quantify the second‐moment effects of trade. The simultaneous expansion of both the highway and rural bank networks increased the mean and the variance of farmer real income, with the first‐moment effect dominating such that expected welfare rose 4.4%. But had rural bank access remained unchanged, welfare gains would have been only half as great, as risk mitigating technologies allowed farmers to take advantage of higher‐risk higher‐return allocations.

Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2024 139(1), 419-475
We propose and implement a new approach that allows us to estimate income-specific changes in household welfare in contexts where well-measured prices are not available for important subsets of consumption. Using rich but widely available expenditure survey microdata, we show that we can recover income-specific equivalent and compensating variations from horizontal shifts in what we call “relative Engel curves”—as long as preferences fall within the broad quasi-separable class (Gorman 1970, 1976). Our approach is flexible enough to allow for nonparametric estimation at each point of the income distribution. We apply the methodology to estimate inflation and welfare changes in rural India between 1987 and 2000. Our estimates reveal that lower rates of inflation for the rich erased the real income convergence found in the existing literature that uses the subset of consumption with well-measured prices to calculate inflation.

How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption

Journal of Political Economy 2021 129(4), 1193-1251
Are identities fungible? How do people come to identify with specific groups? This paper proposes a revealed preference approach, using food consumption to uncover ethnic and religious identity choices in India. We first show that consumption of identity goods responds to forces suggested by social identity research: group status and group salience. Moreover, identity choices respond to the cost of following the group’s prescribed behaviors. We propose and estimate a demand system to quantify the identity changes that followed India’s 1991 reforms. While social identity research has focused on status and salience, our results suggest that economic costs also play an important role.

Retail Globalization and Household Welfare: Evidence from Mexico

Journal of Political Economy 2018 126(1), 1-73 open access
The arrival of global retail chains in developing countries is causing a radical transformation in the way that households source their consumption. This paper draws on a new collection of Mexican microdata to estimate the effect of foreign supermarket entry on household welfare. The richness of the microdata allows us to estimate a general expression for the gains from retail FDI, and to decompose these gains into several distinct channels. We find that foreign retail entry causes large and significant welfare gains for the average household that are mainly driven by a reduction in the cost of living. About one quarter of this price index effect is due to pro-competitive effects on the prices charged by domestic stores, with the remaining three quarters due to the direct consumer gains from shopping at the new foreign stores. In contrast, we find little evidence of significant changes in average municipality-level incomes or employment. We do, however, find evidence of store exit, adverse effects on domestic store profits and reductions in the incomes of traditional retail sector workers. We also show that the gains from retail FDI are on average positive for all income groups but regressive, and quantify the opposing forces that underlie this finding. Finally, we find that the estimated gains are specific to foreign entry, rather than being driven by the entry of modern store formats more generally.

Exporting and Firm Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2017 132(2), 551-615 open access
We conduct a randomized experiment that generates exogenous variation in the access to foreign markets for rug producers in Egypt. Combined with detailed survey data, we causally identify the impact of exporting on firm performance. Treatment firms report 16–26% higher profits and exhibit large improvements in quality alongside reductions in output per hour relative to control firms. These findings do not simply reflect firms being offered higher margins to manufacture high-quality products that take longer to produce. Instead, we find evidence of learning-by-exporting whereby exporting improves technical efficiency. First, treatment firms have higher productivity and quality after controlling for rug specifications. Second, when asked to produce an identical domestic rug using the same inputs and same capital equipment, treatment firms produce higher quality rugs despite no difference in production time. Third, treatment firms exhibit learning curves over time. Finally, we document knowledge transfers with quality increasing most along the specific dimensions that the knowledge pertained to.

Organizational Barriers to Technology Adoption: Evidence from Soccer-Ball Producers in Pakistan*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2017 132(3), 1101-1164 open access
This article studies technology adoption in a cluster of soccer-ball producers in Sialkot, Pakistan. We invented a new cutting technology that reduces waste of the primary raw material and gave the technology to a random subset of producers. Despite the clear net benefits for nearly all firms, after 15 months take-up remained puzzlingly low. We hypothesize that an important reason for the lack of adoption is a misalignment of incentives within firms: the key employees (cutters and printers) are typically paid piece rates, with no incentive to reduce waste, and the new technology slows them down, at least initially. Fearing reductions in their effective wage, employees resist adoption in various ways, including by misinforming owners about the value of the technology. To investigate this hypothesis, we implemented a second experiment among the firms that originally received the technology: we offered one cutter and one printer per firm a lump-sum payment, approximately a month’s earnings, conditional on demonstrating competence in using the technology in the presence of the owner. This incentive payment, small from the point of view of the firm, had a significant positive effect on adoption. The results suggest that misalignment of incentives within firms is an important barrier to technology adoption in our setting.