Accounting for Futures Contracts and the Effect on Earnings Variability
[Effective January 1985, SFAS No. 80 requires banks to recognize changes in the market value of futures contracts that qualify (a) as micro hedges as adjustments to the carrying amount of the hedged item ("hedge accounting"), and (b) as macro hedges currently in income ("immediate recognition"). The distinction between micro and macro hedges depends on whether the futures contracts are linked with identifiable hedge transactions (micro hedge) or not (macro hedge). Three factors motivate commercial banks to use macro hedges: (1) it may be difficult to isolate hedge transactions; (2) since 1983, required disclosures provide readily available measures of macro exposure; and (3) it is possible to increase exposure by micro hedging some items but not others. Consequently, commercial banks, as large macro hedge users, are concerned that immediate recognition accounting causes gains and losses on futures contracts and hedged items to be recognized in different periods. This asymmetry, they argue, increases the variability of earnings and discourages effective use of futures contracts to hedge interest rate risk. Brokerage firms have similar concerns about immediate recognition accounting for futures contracts used for investment or speculation. This paper examines commercial banks' and brokerage firms' claim that the current accounting rules for futures contracts increase earnings variability. As such, this analysis departs from prior studies that focus on the security market's reaction to an accounting change. Simulations calibrated with empirical data collected from a sample of 76 commercial banks are used to generate earnings streams computed under immediate recognition and hedge accounting. The variability of the simulated earnings patterns is then compared using parametric and nonparametric tests. These tests show that immediate recognition accounting significantly increases the dispersion of annual earnings vis-�-vis the earnings stream produced under hedge accounting. This finding, which is robust to the size of the hedge and the measure of earnings, suggests at least one motivation for a change in commercial banks' hedging behavior. Empirical tests are used to compare earnings patterns of a sample of 27 brokerage firms. These results indicate no significant difference between the variability of earnings before and after the effective date of SFAS No. 80. Although based on a small number of time series observations, this finding does not support critics' concern over the accounting treatment for futures contracts used for investment or speculation.]