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The Incidence of Mandated Maternity Benefits

American Economic Review 1994 84(3), 622-641
I consider the labor-market effects of mandates which raise the costs of employing a demographically identifiable group. The efficiency of these policies will be largely dependent on the extent to which their costs are shifted to group-specific wages. I study several state and federal mandates which stipulated that childbirth be covered comprehensively in health insurance plans, raising the relative cost of insuring women of childbearing age. I find substantial shifting of the costs of these mandates to the wages of the targeted group. Correspondingly, I find little effect on total labor input for that group.

Is Making Divorce Easier Bad for Children? The Long‐Run Implications of Unilateral Divorce

Journal of Labor Economics 2004 22(4), 799-833
I assess the long‐run implications for children of growing up in a unilateral divorce environment, which increases the ease of divorce by not requiring the explicit consent of both partners. Using 40 years of census data to exploit the variation across states and over time in changes in divorce regulation, I confirm that unilateral divorce regulations do significantly increase the incidence of divorce. Adults who were exposed to unilateral divorce regulations as children are less well educated, have lower family incomes, marry earlier but separate more often, and have higher odds of adult suicide.

The Incidence of Payroll Taxation: Evidence from Chile

Journal of Labor Economics 1997 15(S3), S72-S101
I provide new evidence on the incidence of payroll taxation by examining the experience of Chile before and after the privatization of its Social Security system. This policy change led to a sharp exogenous reduction in the payroll tax burden on Chilean firms; on average, payroll tax rates fell by 25% over 6 years. Using data from a census of manufacturing firms, I estimate that the incidence of payroll taxation is fully on wages, with no effect on employment. This finding is robust to a variety of empirical approaches to the problem of measurement error in firm‐level measures of taxes/worker.

Covering the Uninsured in the United States

Journal of Economic Literature 2008 46(3), 571-606
One of the major social policy issues facing the United States in the first decade of the twenty-first century is the large number of Americans lacking health insurance. This article surveys the major economic issues around covering the uninsured. I review the facts on insurance coverage and the nature of the uninsured; explore explanations for why the United States has such a large, and growing, uninsured population; and discuss why we should care if individuals are uninsured. I then examine policy options to address the problem of the uninsured, beginning with a discussion of the key issues and available evidence and then turning to estimates from a micro-simulation model of the impact of alternative interventions to increase insurance coverage.

Saving Babies: The Efficacy and Cost of Recent Changes in the Medicaid Eligibility of Pregnant Women

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(6), 1263-1296
A key question for health care reform in the United States is whether expanded health insurance eligibility will lead to improvements in health outcomes. We address this question in the context of the dramatic changes in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant women that took place between 1979 and 1992. We build a detailed simulation model of each state's Medicaid policy during this era and use this model to estimate (1) the effect of changes in the rules on the fraction of women eligible for Medicaid coverage in the event of pregnancy and (2) the effect of Medicaid eligibility changes on birth outcomes in aggregate Vital Statistics data. We have three main findings. First, the changes did dramatically increase the Medicaid eligibility of pregnant women, but did so at quite differential rates across the states. Second, the changes lowered the incidence of infant mortality and low birth weight; we estimate that the 30-percentage-point increase in eligibility among 15-44-year-old women was associated with a decrease in infant mortality of 8.5 percent. Third, earlier, targeted changes in Medicaid eligibility, which were restricted to specific low-income groups, had much larger effects on birth out-comes than broader expansions of eligibility to women with higher income levels. We suggest that the source of this difference is the much lower take-up of Medicaid coverage by individuals who became eligible under the broader eligibility changes. Even the targeted changes cost the Medicaid program $840,000 per infant life saved, however, raising important issues of cost effectiveness.