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Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2009 124(1), 399-422
Are cities as politically polarized as states and countries? “No” is the answer from our regression discontinuity design analysis, which shows that whether the mayor is a Democrat or a Republican does not affect the size of city government, the allocation of local public spending, or crime rates. However, there is a substantial incumbent effect for mayors. We investigate three mechanisms that could account for the striking lack of partisan impact at the local level, and find the most support for Tiebout competition among localities within metropolitan areas.

Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2023 105(6), 1442-1447
We provide novel estimates of the location, timing, magnitude, and determinants of the start of the previous U.S. housing boom. The housing cycle cannot be interpreted as a single, national event, as different markets began to boom across a decade-long period, some of them multiple times. A fundamental factor, income of prospective buyers, can account for half of the initial jump in price growth, while expansion of purchases by underrepresented minorities cannot. The start of the boom also was financed conventionally, not by subprime mortgages. The latter's share did rise sharply over time, but only after a multiyear lag.

Using Home Maintenance and Repairs to Smooth Variable Earnings

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2006 88(4), 736-747
Recent research documents a significant increase in U.S. transitory income variance over the past 25 years. An emerging literature explores the role of durables in the household's attempt to smooth consumption over these movements in transitory income. This paper examines the degree to which homeowners adjust their home maintenance decisions in order to offset transitory income fluctuations. American Housing Survey data show that home maintenance expenditures are economically significant, amounting to nearly $2,100 per year. We find a statistically significant positive elasticity of maintenance expenditures to estimated transitory income changes. However, the results suggest that adjusting home maintenance expenditures plays a relatively minor role in the household's overall consumption smoothing strategy. In terms of actual dollars, deferred home maintenance offsets on average from 1 to 7 cents of each dollar of transitory income loss.

Heterogeneity in Neighborhood-Level Price Growth in the United States, 1993–2009

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 134-140
Examination of detailed geographical information on U.S. housing transactions from 1993 to 2009 find much heterogeneity at the neighborhood level in when the recent boom began, how big the initial jumps in price growth were, how long the booms lasted, and what types of neighborhoods boomed first. There is less neighborhood-level heterogeneity in when the bust began and in aggregate price appreciation during the boom. This heterogeneity suggests that there was no one dominant cause of the boom. We also comment on how very local data may help understand the role of contagion, among other housing market phenomena.

The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(4), 774-806
Differences in local fiscal conditions generate compensating differentials across local land and labor markets just as the authors have known amenities to do. Thus, the local fiscal climate affects the quality of life across metropolitan areas. The authors present new results showing that intercity fiscal differentials are nearly as important as amenity differentials in determining the quality of life across urban areas. The paper also investigates the sensitivity of the quality-of-life rankings with respect to assumptions about the nature of the marginal entrant. The authors estimate a random effects model to account for city-specific error components in the housing and wage regressions.

The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(4), 774-806
Differences in local fiscal conditions generate compensating differentials across local land and labor markets just as we have long known amenities to do. Thus the fiscal climate affects the quality of life across metropolitan areas. We present new results showing that intercity fiscal differentials are nearly as important as amenity differentials in determining the quality of life across urban areas. The paper also investigates the sensitivity of the quality-of-life rankings with respect to assumptions about the nature of the marginal entrant. We estimate a random effects model to account for city-specific error components in the housing and wage regressions. Those results indicate that the standard errors of previous OLS-based quality-of-life rankings have been biased downward substantially. More encompassing data on city traits as well as superior controls for worker and housing quality are needed to increase the precision of quality-of-life estimates.

The Importance of Local Fiscal Conditions in Analyzing Local Labor Markets

Journal of Political Economy 1989 97(5), 1208-1231
A new test of the compensating wage differential model is proposed. The logic behind Roback's model, which shows how differences in nonproduced amenities may be reflected in intercity wage differentials, is extended to the case of differences in local fiscal conditions, represented by tax rates and publicly produced services. Results show that differences in local tax rates and services provisions do generate compensating wage differentials across cities. The effects of a particularly large set of taxes and effective services output measures are examined. Differences in local fiscal conditions are shown to play important roles in explaining the variance in intermetropolitan wages.

The Importance of Local Fiscal Conditions in Analyzing Local Labor Markets

Journal of Political Economy 1989 97(5), 1208-1231
A new test of the compensating wage differential model is proposed. The logic behind Roback's model, which shows how differences in nonproduced amenities may be reflected in intercity wage differentials, is extended to the case of differences in local fiscal conditions, represented by tax rates and publicly produced services. Results show that differences in local tax rates and services provisions do generate compensating wage differentials across cities. The effects of a particularly large set of taxes and effective services output measures are examined. Differences in local fiscal conditions are shown to play important roles in explaining the variance in intermetropolitan wages.

Urban Decline and Durable Housing

Journal of Political Economy 2005 113(2), 345-375 open access
People continue to live in many big American cities, because in those cities housing costs less than new construction. While cities may lose their productive edge, their houses remain and population falls only when housing depreciates. This paper presents a simple durable housing model of urban decline with several implications which document: (1) urban growth rates are leptokurtotic --cities grow more quickly than they decline, (2) city growth rates are highly persistent, especially amount declining cities,

An Analysis of Public- and Private-Sector Wages Allowing for Endogenous Choices of Both Government and Union Status

Journal of Labor Economics 1988 6(2), 229-253
A general selection model is estimated in which workers select across four labor markets-private/nonunion, privat e/union, public/nonunion, and public/union. Evidence is found of posi tive selection bias in the private/nonunion sector and of negative se lection bias in the public/union sector. Union wage differentials in the public and private sectors as well as public/private wage differe ntials are contrasted. The authors discuss when it is appropriate to use each type of differential.