I assess time-series return predictability using a weighted least squares estimator that is around 25% more efficient than ordinary least squares (OLS) because it incorporates timevarying volatility into its point estimates. Traditional predictors, such as the dividend yield, perform better in-and out-of-sample when using my estimator, indicating the insignificant OLS estimates may be false negatives driven by a lack of power. Some newer predictors, such as the variance risk premium and the president's political party, are insignificant when using my estimator, indicating the significant OLS estimates may be false positives driven by a few periods with high expected volatility. (JEL G10, G11, G12)

We use an event study approach to estimate the burden of the financial regulations associated with Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) designation. On March 30, 2016, the US District Court determined that MetLife’s SIFI designation was arbitrary and capricious because the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) failed to weigh the economic cost of the financial regulation on MetLife against the benefits of increased financial stability. We find significant positive abnormal returns for MetLife and AIG on the date of the ruling. We estimate that the lifting of the SIFI designation created $1.4 billion in corporate wealth for MetLife, suggesting that MetLife would be 3.4% more profitable as a non-SIFI. These gains fall short of the $8 billion stipulated by MetLife in its complaint. We also find significant abnormal returns to SIFI institutions on the day following the US Presidential election.

Hjertstrand et al. (2016) recently tested weak separability of the direct utility function using U.S. data on consumption goods, leisure, financial and monetary assets. This paper investigates different forms of weak separability. While weak separability of the direct utility function provides the best fit, by allowing for small errors in the data we find some evidence that financial and monetary assets can be rationalized by a weakly separable indirect utility function. Further we find that M1, a modern analog of money defined by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and narrow and broader real sector aggregates can be rationalized by indirect weak separability. We also find that M1 and real sector aggregates can be rationalized by homothetic weak separability.

[Rule 10b5-1 enables insiders to preplan future trades before becoming informed. Within a strategic rational expectations equilibrium framework, I characterize an insider’s unique optimal trading plan, which balances portfolio diversification against exploitation of the rule’s selective termination option. Because the rule reduces adverse selection and provides insurance against bad outcomes, the rule generally improves welfare for both the insider, who later becomes informed, and uninformed outsiders, provided there exists a sufficient degree of information asymmetry. Eliminating the rule’s selective termination option results in an even greater welfare improvement under a large subset of parametric conditions.]

Financial statement amounts are established by managers and verified by auditors, and reporting and audit processes are overseen by audit committees of individuals having varying levels of knowledge about and experience with specific financial reporting tasks. As such, understanding how monitoring decision inputs, such as individual task-specific experience, affect reporting outcomes is essential for understanding the monitoring ability of audit committees, particularly when tasks are complex. Grounded in behavioral theory and using archival data, I examine whether and how individual audit committee member task-specific experience affects group financial reporting outcomes and whether effects are consistent with contagion or conservatism. Using a sample matched on audit committee selection characteristics, I find audit committee task-specific experience is associated with goodwill write-off decisions and I find no incremental effect of task-specific experience of individuals with appointed or other high-status characteristics, consistent with task-specific experience itself elevating status in group decision making. Further, results support the conclusion that audit committee task-specific experience induces conservative outcomes, rather than contagion of decisions between firms. Results should be important for assessing the monitoring ability of audit committees, particularly when managerial incentives to bias earnings are present.

Rule 10b5-1 enables insiders to preplan future trades before becoming informed. Within a strategic rational expectations equilibrium framework, I characterize an insider’s unique optimal trading plan, which balances portfolio diversification against exploitation of the rule’s selective termination option. Because the rule reduces adverse selection and provides insurance against bad outcomes, the rule generally improves welfare for both the insider, who later becomes informed, and uninformed outsiders, provided there exists a sufficient degree of information asymmetry. Eliminating the rule’s selective termination option results in an even greater welfare improvement under a large subset of parametric conditions. Received March 9, 2018; editorial decision January 11, 2019 by Editor Wei Jiang.

This paper examines whether managers can reduce the detrimental effects of information overload by spreading out, or temporally smoothing, disclosures. We begin by attempting to identify managerial smoothing. We find that when there are multiple disclosures for the same event date, managers spread the disclosures out over several days. Managers are also more likely to delay a disclosure when there has been a disclosure made within the three days before the event date. Finally, managers are more likely to engage in disclosure smoothing when disclosures are longer, the information environment is more robust, firm information is complex, uncertainty is high, and disclosure news is more positive. Our second set of analyses examines whether there are market benefits to disclosure smoothing. Using two different measures of disclosure smoothing, we find that smoothing is associated with increased liquidity, reduced stock price volatility and increased analyst forecast accuracy.