This paper assesses the sensitivity of the risk buffers, or capital requirements, of central counterparties clearing over-the-counter derivatives trades to a range of model inputs. It finds capital requirements to be highly sensitive to whether key model parameters are calibrated on a point-in-time versus stress-period basis, whether the risk tolerance metric adequately captures tail-risk events, and the ability – or lack thereof – to define exposures on the basis of netting sets spanning multiple risk factors. Our results suggest that there are considerable benefits from prudential authorities adopting a more prescriptive approach to central counterparties’ risk buffers, in line with recent enhancement of the capital regime for banks’ trading books.

Previous studies have identified a negative relation between firms’hiring rates and future stock returns in the cross-section. We document that this relation is significantly steeper in industries that rely relatively more on high-skill workers than low-skill workers. A longshort portfolio sorted on firm-level hiring rate earns an average annual return of 8.6 % in high-skill industries, and only 0.9 % in low-skill industries. Moreover, this pattern is not explained by the standard CAPM. These findings are consistent with a neoclassical model with labor force heterogeneity and labor market frictions if it is more costly to replace high-skill than low-skill workers.

Abstract Relative performance evaluation (RPE) is widely used to filter out common shocks, but it is prone to collusion. We study the performance of RPE when agents are differentially productive (or evaluated in a biased manner). While such diversity is always costly in a static setting, it can be useful in repeated interactions, because it makes it harder for agents to collude. We identify conditions under which the principal prefers independent or joint performance evaluation if agents are identical but prefers RPE if they are diverse. In low-skill industries, the principal should offer asymmetric contracts even to homogeneous agents—a form of favoritism—as the cheapest way to combat collusion. Our results generate novel empirical predictions and contribute to the recent literature linking accounting and labor economics.

Abstract Form 10-K offers a setting for studying how users process complex, multi-layered disclosures: managerial narratives in the main file alongside separate exhibits, such as contracts and certifications, that provide unfiltered detail. Drawing on rational inattention theory, we investigate how users allocate limited attention across these components. Users typically begin with the main file and selectively access exhibits when the main file appears shorter, less readable, or less confident, indicating higher perceived information loss. This pattern strengthens for exhibits that offer more detail on topics discussed in the main file and among institutional investors and time-constrained users. Exhibit access persists beyond the initial filing window and increases around subsequent firm events, especially when external monitoring strengthens and event-related information asymmetry grows. Collectively, our findings underscore the active, discerning nature of user attention in navigating multi-layered disclosures and reveal the often-overlooked informational value of exhibits in Form 10-K.

We assess the role that monetary policy plays in the decision to default using a General Equilibrium model with collateralized loans, trade in fiat money and production. The monetary authority extends long-term credit against risky collateral along with its traditional monetary operations. The value of collateral depends on traditional monetary policy and agents can optimally choose to default depending on the relative value of the collateral to the face value of the loan. Default results in foreclosure, higher borrowing costs, inefficient investment and a decrease in total output. We show that pre-crisis contractionary monetary policy interacts with Fisherian debt-deflation dynamics and can increase the probability that a crisis occurs.

This paper extends Brock and Durlauf's (2001a, 2001b) binary choice complete network (or group interaction) model with homogeneous rational expectations to a general network model with heterogeneous rational expectations. In our model, individuals will form expectations regarding peers' behaviors taking into account their characteristics. Endogenous, contextual, and correlated effects are all identifiable. Conditions for unique equilibrium are established. For a complete network with heterogeneous rational expectations, multiple equilibria can be characterized by an aggregate scalar index. The empirical results on adolescents' smoking behaviors show significant endogenous and contextual effects, even after controlling for school-grade random effects and school fixed effects.

We find that analysts are more likely to downgrade stocks when prices approach the 52-week high. The results are stronger for stocks with higher information asymmetry but moderated by analysts' reputation, work experience, and educational background. We also find a strategy that shorts stocks with recommendation downgrades is less profitable for the downgrades near 52-week high than for other downgrades. Moreover, these downgraded firms with prices near 52-week high subsequently experience relatively less negative earnings forecast revisions. These results suggest that these downgrade decisions are less likely to be information-driven and consistent with our anchoring interpretation.

We investigate tax incidence reflected in the pricing of syndicated loans and argue that loan spread increases in bank income taxes of borrowers’ home states. We compare borrowers in states with differing bank tax rates and demonstrate the presence of tax incidence on borrowers with causality coming from bank taxes. Tax incidence on borrowers increases with local loan market concentration and pre-existing lending relationships. Further, a lack of tax deductibility of loan loss provisions enhances tax incidence. We conclude that bank income taxation, though specifically targeted at banks, is partially passed through to borrowers and increases their cost of debt.