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Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation

Journal of Finance 2024 79(6), 3729-3772 open access
ABSTRACT We study the impact of rising mortgage rates on mobility and labor reallocation. Using individual‐level credit record data and variation in the timing of mortgage origination, we show that a 1 percentage point decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 9% overall and 16% between 2022 and 2024, and this relationship is asymmetric. Mortgage lock‐in also dampens flows in and out of self‐employment and the responsiveness to shocks to nearby employment opportunities that require moving, measured as wage growth within a 50‐ to 150‐mile ring and instrumented with a shift‐share instrument.

A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(12), 4738-4754
We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis.

Green links: corporate networks and environmental performance

Review of Finance 2024 28(3), 1027-1058 open access
We investigate the propagation of environmental performance among competitors and in customer–supplier relationships. We find a significant causal effect among competitors, while the propagation from customers to suppliers and vice versa appears insignificant or does not survive identification tests. The effect is stronger among firms in highly concentrated competitor networks and toward firms with less market and bargaining power than their competitors. We also find significantly stronger propagation of environmental performance among competitors engaged in joint research and development activity. These results show that the propagation stems from both competitive pressure and technological spillover. Importantly, we find that propagation is strong when the competitor improves its environmental performance and when the firm’s own environmental performance is poor initially, alleviating concerns that improvements in performance are concentrated among firms, which are already green. Overall, network effects among competing firms are a significant force shaping environmental performance, and a force mostly for good.

Refinancing cross-subsidies in the mortgage market

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 158, 103876 open access
In household finance markets, inactive households can implicitly cross-subsidize active households who promptly respond to financial incentives. We assess the magnitude and distribution of cross-subsidies in the mortgage market. To do so, we build a structural model of household mortgage refinancing and estimate it on rich administrative data covering the stock of outstanding mortgages in the UK. We estimate sizeable cross-subsidies that flow from relatively poorer households and those located in less-wealthy areas towards richer households and those located in wealthier areas. Our work highlights how the design of household finance markets can contribute to wealth inequality.

Reference Dependence in the Housing Market

American Economic Review 2022 112(10), 3398-3440 open access
We quantify reference dependence and loss aversion in the housing market using rich Danish administrative data. Our structural model includes loss aversion, reference dependence, financial constraints, and a sale decision, and matches key nonparametric moments, including a “hockey stick” in listing prices with nominal gains, and bunching at zero realized nominal gains. Households derive substantial utility from gains over the original house purchase price; losses affect households roughly 2.5 times more than gains. The model helps explain the positive correlation between aggregate house prices and turnover, but cannot explain visible attenuation in reference dependence when households are more financially constrained. (JEL D12, D91, G51, R21, R31)