This paper documents differences in lifetime earnings risk across occupations due to wage risk, employment risk, and midcareer occupation changes, which can mitigate other shocks. Total lifetime earnings risk varies considerably across starting occupation, and riskier occupations pay more in expectation. The average worker would give up at least 9% of total lifetime earnings in the least certain occupation to reduce the riskiness of that occupation to the level of the safest starting occupation. The insurance value of occupational mobility is quantitatively important. With mobility, workers absorb only 60%, on average, of negative occupation-specific wage shocks.

I develop a model in which individual time discount rates have a larger effect on human capital accumulation when credit constraints are binding. Impatient individuals obtain less schooling when borrowing constraints limit the ability to finance consumption during school. Using data from the NLSY79, I show that self-reported measures of time preferences have a significantly higher effect on the college attendance decisions of blacks than those of whites and the decisions of low-income youths than those of high-income youths. These results provide new evidence that members of disadvantaged groups obtain lower levels of schooling because they are credit constrained.

This article develops a model, with deferred compensation and severance pay, that predicts that workers bear all the costs and receive all the returns of human capital investments and that specific investments yield higher returns than general investments. This model also predicts that pensions, which efficiently defer compensation, will be positively related to specific investments. Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men confirms these predictions; participation in company-sponsored training programs, proxying for specific investments, increases the probability of pension receipt and the level of benefits. More general training outside the firm has much smaller effects on pensions.

This article explores the measurement of labor force dynamics using longitudinal data, focusing in particular on the Canadian Labour Market Activity Survey (LMAS), which represents a potential advance in longitudinal data collection because it measures aspects of dynamics not available in existing panel data such as the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Longitudinal Survey. We examine the implications of the LMAS questionnaire structure-the LMAS filter-for the study of labor market dynamics and undertake simulations to provide a quantitative assessment of the importance of this filter for labor force spells and transitions between labor force states.

Canada has a universal social assistance program that is almost completely administered through the federal Canada Assistance Program. However, provinces determine the levels of assistance for various groups eligible for welfare. This article exploits the variation in payments and uses microdata to estimate the effect of changes in welfare benefits on welfare participation, single parenthood, births out of wedlock, divorce, and labor force participation among low-income women. In Canada, it would appear that welfare benefits influence these decisions.

This study is concerned with the impact of changes in economic conditions on the family. "Three issues are considered in this paper. First, the reasons why the family is not fading away as an economic entity are discussed. The argument of this paper is that, despite the declines in various economic functions of the family and the increases in divorces and in other failures, the survival capacity of the family is both strong and robust." Second, the author contends that the economic approach should be extended to deal with the effects of the life-span revolution, shifts in prices and incomes, and the ability of the family to cope with these changes. Third, the hypothesis is put forward that intergenerational transfers are less important than increases over time in real per capita incomes and changes in income composition, its permanent and temporary components, and the sources of income. The geographical focus is worldwide.

The income maintenance experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a basic income. Proponents of a negative income tax (NIT) viewed it as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives. However, existing labor supply estimates for single mothers (those eligible for welfare) are uniformly negative. We reassess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find positive labor supply responses for those on welfare before random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that an NIT can increase work activity among single mothers on welfare.

The Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP) was a well-known welfare-to-work experiment that provided a generous but time-limited financial incentive to leave welfare and enter the workforce. Experimental evidence showed large short-term impacts but no lasting effects. We argue that these conclusions need to be reassessed. Policy changes implemented during the SSP implied that the control group’s behavior did not provide an appropriate counterfactual. We estimate the impacts the financial incentive would have had in an unchanging policy environment. This reassessment leads to significant changes in the lessons previously reached. Our study demonstrates that experimental findings need to be interpreted with care.

This article reports nonparametric estimates of the effect of labor-supply behavior on the payments to families enrolled in the Seattle/Denver Income Maintenance Experiment. The randomized assignment of families to the treatment groups in this experiment was designed to permit the calculation of these nonparametric estimates. However, the nonparametric estimates have never been reported, even though they are easy to construct using a simple weighting procedure. Unfortunately, responses to the data collection instrument (which depended on costly surveys) were not random, and this opens up some ambiguity in the results.