Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China
Government-controlled brokerage analysts serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Examining the 2005–2019 period, we show these analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during market rescue periods, supporting stock prices. During market booms, they issue comparatively pessimistic but more accurate and timely forecasts, tempering excessive optimism. These patterns are stronger for large firms and state-owned enterprises, and at the most government-influenced brokerages. Markets appear to respond to these forecasts: stocks with greater government-brokerage coverage experience higher liquidity during downturns but lower liquidity during hot markets, with corresponding post-earnings price adjustments. Our findings match Brunnermeier, Sockin, and Xiong’s (2022) theoretical predictions: state interventions can erode information efficiency under intensive intervention while maintaining it under moderate intervention. Collectively, these results underscore that analysts can serve a dual role—as information providers and policy instruments shaping market expectations and stability—in a coordinated economy. Data Availability: The data used in this study were obtained from the China Stock Market & Accounting Research (CSMAR) database under a commercial license and cannot be redistributed by the authors. Researchers can obtain equivalent data through institutional access to CSMAR.