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An Analysis of Covariance Risk and Pricing Anomalies

Review of Financial Studies 2003 16(2), 417-457
This article examines the link between several well-known asset pricing “anomalies” and the covariance structure of returns. I find size, book-to-market, and momentum strategies exhibit a strong, weak, and negligible relation to covariance risk, respectively. A size factor helps predict future volatility and covariation, improving the efficiency of investment strategies. Moreover, its premium rises following increases in both its volatility and covariation with other assets. These effects are amplified in recessions. No such relations exist for book-to-market or momentum. These findings may shed light on explanations for these premia and present a challenging set of facts for future theory.

Asset Pricing and Sports Betting

Journal of Finance 2021 76(6), 3153-3209
Sports betting markets offer a novel laboratory to test theories of cross‐sectional asset pricing anomalies. Two features of this market—no systematic risk and terminal values exogenous to betting activity—evade the joint hypothesis problem, allowing mispricing to be detected. Examining a large and diverse set of liquid betting contracts, I find strong evidence of momentum, consistent with delayed overreaction and inconsistent with underreaction and rational pricing. Returns are a fraction of those in financial markets and fail to overcome transactions costs, preventing arbitrage from eliminating them. An insight from betting also predicts value and momentum returns in U.S. equities.

The role of shorting, firm size, and time on market anomalies

Journal of Financial Economics 2013 108(2), 275-301
We examine the role of shorting, firm size, and time on the profitability of size, value, and momentum strategies. We find that long positions make up almost all of size, 60% of value, and half of momentum profits. Shorting becomes less important for momentum and more important for value as firm size decreases. The value premium decreases with firm size and is weak among the largest stocks. Momentum profits, however, exhibit no reliable relation with size. These effects are robust over 86 years of US equity data and almost 40 years of data across four international equity markets and five asset classes. Variation over time and across markets of these effects is consistent with random chance. We find little evidence that size, value, and momentum returns are significantly affected by changes in trading costs or institutional and hedge fund ownership over time.

Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios

Journal of Finance 1999 54(6), 2045-2073
The strong bias in favor of domestic securities is a well‐documented characteristic of international investment portfolios, yet we show that the preference for investing close to home also applies to portfolios of domestic stocks. Specifically, U.S. investment managers exhibit a strong preference for locally headquartered firms, particularly small, highly levered firms that produce nontraded goods. These results suggest that asymmetric information between local and nonlocal investors may drive the preference for geographically proximate investments, and the relation between investment proximity and firm size and leverage may shed light on several well‐documented asset pricing anomalies.

Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 71(3), 541-579
The consistency of positive past returns and tax-loss selling significantly affects the relation between past returns and the cross-section of expected returns. Analysis of these additional effects across stock characteristics, seasons, and tax regimes provides clues about the sources of temporal relations in stock returns, pointing to potential explanations for this relation. A parsimonious trading rule generates surprisingly large economic returns despite controls for confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and data snooping biases.

Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2005 18(3), 981-1020
We parsimoniously characterize the severity of market frictions affecting a stock using the delay with which its price responds to information. The most delayed firms command a large return premium not explained by size, liquidity, or microstructure effects. Moreover, delay captures part of the size effect, idiosyncratic risk is priced only among the most delayed firms, and earnings drift is monotonically increasing in delay. Frictions associated with investor recognition appear most responsible for the delay effect. The very small segment of delayed firms, comprising only 0.02% of the market, generates substantial variation in average returns, highlighting the importance of frictions.

Confronting Information Asymmetries: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(2), 405-437
There are relatively few direct tests of the economic effects of asymmetric information because of the difficulty in identifying exogenous information measures. We propose a novel exogenous measure of information based on the quality of property tax assessments in different regions and apply this to the U.S. commercial real estate market. We find strong evidence that information considerations are significant. Market participants resolve information asymmetries by purchasing nearby properties, trading properties with long income histories, and avoiding transactions with informed professional brokers. The evidence that the choice of financing is used to address information concerns is mixed and weak.

Informal Financial Networks: Theory and Evidence

Review of Financial Studies 2003 16(4), 1007-1040
We develop a model of informal financial networks and present corroborating evidence by studying the role of property brokers in the U.S. commercial real estate market. Our model demonstrates that service intermediaries, who do not themselves supply loans, can facilitate their clients' access to finance through informal relationships with lenders. Empirically we find that, controlling for endogenous broker selection, hiring a broker strikingly increases the probability of obtaining bank finance. Our results demonstrate that even in the United States, with its well-developed capital markets, informal networks play an important role in controlling access to finance.

The Effects of Stock Lending on Security Prices: An Experiment

Journal of Finance 2013 68(5), 1891-1936
We examine the impact of short selling by conducting a randomized stock lending experiment. Working with a large, anonymous money manager, we create an exogenous and sizeable shock to the supply of lendable shares by taking high loan fee stocks in the manager's portfolio and randomly making available and withholding stocks from the lending market. The experiment ran in two independent phases: the first, from September 5 to 18, 2008, with over $580 million of securities lent, and the second, from June 5 to September 30, 2009, with over $250 million of securities lent. While the supply shocks significantly reduce market lending fees and raise quantities, we find no evidence that returns, volatility, skewness, or bid–ask spreads are affected. The results provide novel evidence on the impact of shorting supply and do not indicate any adverse effects on stock prices from securities lending.