Knowledge that Transforms

Although bargaining is common in markets for heterogeneous goods, it has largely been ignored in the hedonic literature. In a break from that tradition, we establish sufficient conditions that permit one to identify the effect of buyer and seller bargaining on hedonic models. Our model is estimated using a previously overlooked feature of the American Housing Survey that permits us to observe characteristics of both buyers and sellers. Results suggest that household wealth, gender, and other demographic traits influence bargaining power. In addition, variation in bargaining power arising from the presence of school-age children accounts for anomalous seasonal patterns reported in various widely cited indices of quality-adjusted house prices.

This paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job-loss risk to household net worth. We use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty, instrumentation, and incorporating theoretical restrictions. We do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income, but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher-income households. When the dependent variable is total net worth, these findings are robust to several alternative specifications. But we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity.

This paper examines empirically the link between real-exchange-rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries, using a large cross-country time series data set. The paper builds a GARCH-based measure of real-exchange-rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative effect on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The effect of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative effect of real-exchange-rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.

A class of model-based filters for extracting trends and cycles in economic time series is presented. These lowpass and bandpass filters are derived in a mutually consistent manner as the joint solution to a signal extraction problem in an unobserved-components model. The resulting trends and cycles are computed in finite samples using the Kalman filter and associated smoother. The filters form a class which is a generalization of the class of Butterworth filters, widely used in engineering. They are very flexible and have the important property of allowing relatively smooth cycles to be extracted from economic time series. Perfectly sharp, or ideal, bandpass filters emerge as a limiting case. Applying the method to quarterly series on U.S. investment and GDP shows a clearly defined cycle.

This paper reports the results of an empirical study of the industry and country determinants of U.S. outward foreign direct investment (FDI). These results contribute to the literature in two dimensions. First, they demonstrate that the structure of U.S. FDI reflects an interaction between country skilled-labor abundance and industry skilled-labor intensities that is consistent with comparative advantage. Second, they confirm the results of early studies that market access plays an important role in the structure of U.S. FDI. Together these results paint a broad picture of the structure of U.S. FDI that casts light on the predictions of the theory of multinational enterprise.

The conditional logit model based on random utility maximization has provided an adequate framework to model firm location decisions. However, in practice, the implementation of this methodology presents problems when one has to handle complex choice scenarios with a large number of spatial alternatives. We posit the Poisson regression as a tractable solution to these problems. We demonstrate that by taking advantage of an equivalence relation between the likelihood function of the conditional logit and the Poisson regression we can, under certain circumstances, easily estimate a conditional logit model regardless of the number of choices. This insight should be particularly useful for studies of economic location.

This paper studies the response of housing markets to immigration shocks. Following Card (1990), I examine the changes in rental prices in Miami and three comparison groups after the Mariel boatlift. This exogenous immigration shock added an extra 9% to Miami's renter population in 1980. I find that rents increased from 8% to 11% more in Miami than in the comparison groups between 1979 and 1981. By 1983 the rent differential was still 7%. Rental units of higher quality were not affected by the immigration shock. Units occupied by low-income Hispanic residents in 1979 experienced an extra 8% differential hike with respect to other low-income units. Relative housing prices moved in the opposite direction from rents in the short run.

This paper investigates the effects of mandatory seat belt laws on driver behavior and traffic fatalities. Using a unique panel data set on seat belt usage in all U.S. jurisdictions, we analyze how such laws, by influencing seat belt use, affect the incidence of traffic fatalities. Allowing for the endogeneity of seat belt usage, we find that such usage decreases overall traffic fatalities. The magnitude of this effect, however, is significantly smaller than the estimate used by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. In addition, we do not find significant support for the compensating-behavior theory, which suggests that seat belt use also has an indirect adverse effect on fatalities by encouraging careless driving. Finally, we identify factors, especially the type of enforcement used, that make seat belt laws more effective in increasing seat belt usage.

We explore the importance of modeling strategies when estimating the emissions-income relationship. Using U.S. state-level panel data on nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, we estimate several environmental Kuznets curves using the standard parametric framework as well as a more flexible semiparametric alternative. Formal statistical comparisons of the results overwhelmingly reject the parametric approach. Moreover, the differences, particularly for sulfur dioxide, are economically significant.

Universities are a key institution in the U.S. innovation system, and an important aspect of their involvement is the role they play in public-private partnerships. This note offers insights into the performance of industry-university research partnerships, using a survey of precommercial research projects funded by the Advanced Technology Program. Although results must be interpreted cautiously because of the small size of the sample, the study finds that projects with university involvement tend to be in areas involving new science and therefore experience more difficulty and delay, yet are more likely not to be aborted prematurely. Our interpretation is that universities are contributing to basic research awareness and insight among the partners in ATP-funded projects.