Knowledge that Transforms

We examine how the 2018–19 US–China trade war affected Mexican firms' trade and find that US tariff hikes on China increased exports to the US, imports from the US and Asia, and net exports overall. Distinguishing firms by global value chain (GVC) participation and parent country, we show that foreign multinationals in technology-intensive industries drove much of the adjustment. Heterogeneous responses between US and non-US MNEs highlight nearshoring dynamics and GVC reorganization toward Mexico. The results provide firm-level evidence of trade policy's transformative effects on GVCs and the role of MNEs in transmitting policy spillovers to third countries.

I study how domestic political considerations influence the foreign policy choices of autocratic regimes, by analyzing China’s foreign aid. First, using contractor-level data, I document how the regime uses foreign aid projects to help maintain domestic stability: aid projects are awarded to state-owned firms in Chinese prefectures hit by social unrest, increasing employment and future political stability. Second, I find that this strategy to manage domestic unrest affects the global allocation of Chinese aid, since state-owned firms pursue projects in countries where they have prior connections.

We consider the role of parental influence on the industry choice of entrepreneurs and the success of their ventures. Almost 75% of male entrepreneurs start a firm in an industry that is the same or closely related to their father’s industry of employment. Ventures started by same-industry entrepreneurs have superior mean outcomes and higher propensity to be positive outliers. The patterns cannot be explained by parents helping out or by inherited intrinsic abilities. We argue that entrepreneurs appear to obtain industry knowledge through interacting with parents during upbringing, or “dinner table human capital”.

This paper presents new causal evidence on the “power” of oral contraceptives in shaping women's lives, leveraging the 1970 liberalization of the Pill for minors in the Netherlands and demand- and supply-side religious preferences that affected Pill take-up. We analyze administrative data to demonstrate that, after Pill liberalization, minors from less conservative areas were more likely to delay fertility/marriage and to accumulate human capital in the long run. We then show how these large effects were eliminated for women facing a higher share of gatekeepers—general practitioners and pharmacists—who were opposed to providing the Pill on religious grounds.

We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in persistence over time, offering a data-driven alternative to traditional parametric models. We applied this methodology to U.S. inflation and stock market volatility data and found substantial persistence variations that align with key macroeconomic events and market conditions. The results reveal previously undetected pockets of predictability and provide significant increases in out-of-sample forecast accuracy. These findings have important implications for economic modeling, forecasting, and policy analysis.

Heat's impact on economic growth and aggregate productivity is well-established, but while individual impairments are well-understood as mechanisms, the role of interpersonal dynamics remain unexplored despite the growing prevalence of team-based occupations. In our experiment, programmers were randomly assigned to work individually or in pairs under warm (29°C) or control (24°C) conditions. We found that heat had no effect on individual performance but impaired team performance—not through decreased effort but likely through impaired collaboration. This negative impact was strongest in heterogeneous teams, suggesting heat exacerbates coordination challenges, confirmed by poorer partner evaluations in warm conditions.

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium signaling game model of xenophobia, in which the reputational consequences of committing xenophobic acts are determined endogenously. Using our unique survey data, which enables the identification of the model, we find that reputational incentives are a key driver of xenophobic behavior, suggesting that policies targeting these motivations could be effective. We then apply this structural model to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on anti-Chinese xenophobia. Our findings suggest that the majority of the post-pandemic rise in xenophobic behaviors is driven by changes in reputational incentives.

In criminal cases, prosecutors have the discretion to adjust arresting officers’ charges and so can offset racial disparities introduced by police. Yet prior research suggests that prosecutors instead compound earlier disparities. We investigate prosecutors’ impacts on disparities using sentencing discontinuities in North Carolina, where defendants with slightly longer criminal histories face mandatory prison. Prosecutors can sidestep these mandatory-prison laws by reducing qualifying defendants’ charges. Between 1995 and 2019, Black defendants were initially less likely — but ultimately became more likely — to benefit from charge reductions that avoid mandatory prison. This reversal is driven by arrests typically initiated by police.

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of average short-term expectations with realized inflation. (3) Long-term inflation expectations tend to exhibit increases that persist throughout disinflation. (4) Policy responses are characterized by hikes in nominal interest rates but no tightening of real rates or fiscal balances, departing from textbook policy rules, and instead exhibiting a “fear of tightening.”

We examine student, teacher, and peer perceptions of effort, ability, performance, and self-confidence in Romania's highly tracked schools. We find that: (1) students just above a cutoff—tracked into high-achieving classes—have less favorable self-perceptions than those just below (“big-fish-little-pond” effects); (2) students perceive peers in their classes more favorably (“in-group bias”); (3) this bias is stronger in lower-achieving classes; (4) students perceive themselves more positively than others perceive them (“illusory superiority”); (5) this bias is stronger among lower-achieving students (“Krueger-Dunning effects”). In short, being tracked into lower-achieving classes does not appear to negatively affect self-perceptions.