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Review of de Soto's The Mystery of Capital

Journal of Economic Literature 2001 39(4), 1215-1223
In The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto promotes his explanation of why formal capital markets function poorly in developing countries. De Soto argues that much of the population of developing countries lacks access to credit, not because they lack assets, but because ownership of their property is secured informally, which prevents the use of property as collateral. The inability to convert assets into capital keeps the developing world from benefiting from capitalism.

Information and Bargaining through Agents: Experimental Evidence from Mexico’s Labour Courts

Review of Economic Studies 2024 91(6), 3677-3711 open access
Well-functioning courts are essential for the health of both financial and real economies. Courts function poorly in most lower-income countries, but the root causes of poor performance are not well understood. We use field experiments with ongoing cases to analyse sources of dysfunction in Mexico’s largest labour court. We provide parties with personalized predictions for case outcomes and show that this information nearly doubles settlement rates and reduces average case duration. The experiment generates the first experimental evidence in live court cases that reducing information asymmetries results in a decrease in delay, an outcome predicted by many theories of bargaining. We also find that the information treatment is effective only when the plaintiff is present to receive it directly, suggesting agency issues between plaintiffs and their private lawyers. For most workers, the treatment appears to improve welfare, as measured by discounted payouts and ability to pay bills.

The Quality of the Legal System, Firm Ownership, and Firm Size

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2007 89(4), 601-614 open access
We show that firm size is increasing with the quality of the legal system in Mexico. A 1-standard-deviation improvement in the quality of the legal system is associated with a 0.15–0.30 standard deviation increase in firm size. We also show that the legal system affects firm size by reducing the idiosyncratic risk faced by firm owners. The legal system has a smaller impact on partnerships and corporations than on proprietorships, where risk is concentrated in a single owner. All of the findings are robust to instrumenting for legal quality using historical conditions. By focusing on firms in a single country, the data draw attention to the importance of informal institutions.

Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2008 123(4), 1329-1372
We use randomized grants to generate shocks to capital stock for a set of Sri Lankan microenterprises. We find the average real return to capital in these enterprises is 4.6%–5.3% per year), substantially higher than market interest rates. We then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects. Returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with household wealth, but not to vary with measures of risk aversion or uncertainty. Treatment impacts are also significantly larger for enterprises owned by males; indeed, we find no positive return in enterprises owned by females.

The Market for Training Services: A Demand Experiment with Bangladeshi Garment Factories

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 300-304 open access
We marketed a training program for lower level managers (line supervisors) to large factories in the Bangladeshi ready-made garment industry. Take-up of the program (even for a free slot) was low, due to intense production pressures, fire-fighting and concerns over retention of trained workers. Take-up is quite insensitive to pricing. There was higher interest and demand in training modules aimed at improving production processes and quality, rather than human resources and social compliance. Since the program was priced close to a commercially viable rate, it might be possible to develop a market provided they could be proved to be effective.

Property Rights and Finance

American Economic Review 2002 92(5), 1335-1356
Which is the tighter constraint on private sector investment: weak property rights or limited access to external finance? From a survey of new firms in post-communist countries, we find that weak property rights discourage firms from reinvesting their profits, even when bank loans are available. Where property rights are relatively strong, firms reinvest their profits; where they are relatively weak, entrepreneurs do not want to invest from retained earnings.

Deposit Collecting: Unbundling the Role of Frequency, Salience, and Habit Formation in Generating Savings

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 387-392
We report on a field experiment using several methods for collecting deposits made in formal bank accounts in rural areas in Sri Lanka. We find that only frequent, face-to-face collection increases aggregate household savings. Collection involving community lock boxes increases balances at the collecting bank, but not overall household savings. Only community box collection appears to have the possibility of being financially viable. The various collection methods allow us to unbundle the role of frequency, salience and habit formation in deposit decisions. We find that frequency and salience affect the number of transactions, but not the level of savings.

Wage Subsidies for Microenterprises

American Economic Review 2010 100(2), 614-618 open access
Wage subsidies have long been used by Governments as part of their active labor market policies to generate employment for the disadvantaged or to sustain employment during downturns. The current global financial crisis has seen such policies return to prominence, with many developed nations using such policies to try and reduce lay-offs. Nicholas Kaldor (1936), P. Richard Layard and Stephen Nickell (1980), and Lawrence Katz (1998) lay out the economic arguments for such a policy, and discuss conditions under which a short-term subsidy might have longer-term effects on employment for the targeted individuals.

What Are the Headwaters of Formal Savings? Experimental Evidence from Sri Lanka

Review of Economic Studies 2019 86(6), 2491-2529 open access
The world’s poor are seeing a rapid expansion in access to formal savings accounts. What is the source of savings when households are connected to a formal account? We combine a high-frequency panel survey spanning two and a half years with an experiment in which a Sri Lankan bank used mobile Point-of-Service (POS) terminals to collect deposits directly from households each week. We find that the headwaters of formal savings lie in sacrificed leisure time: households work more, and improved savings options generate an increase in labour effort in both self-employment and in the wage market. The results suggest that the labour allocation channel is an important mechanism linking savings opportunities to income.