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The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

American Economic Review 2004 94(4), 870-895
The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement provides a unique window onto the effects of a reciprocal trade agreement on an industrialized economy (Canada). For industries that experienced the deepest Canadian tariff cuts, the contraction of low-productivity plants reduced employment by 12 percent while raising industry-level labor productivity by 15 percent. For industries that experienced the largest U.S. tariff cuts, plant-level labor productivity soared by 14 percent. These results highlight the conflict between those who bore the short-run adjustment costs (displaced workers and struggling plants) and those who are garnering the long-run gains (consumers and efficient plants).

The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries

American Economic Review 1995 85(5), 1029-1046
The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem, which predicts that countries will export products that are made from factors in great supply, performs poorly. However, deviations from HOV follow pronounced patterns. Trade is missing relative to its HOV prediction. Also, rich countries appear scarce in most factors and poor countries appear abundant in all factors, a fact that squares poorly with the HOV prediction that abundant factors are exported. As suggested by the patterns, HOV is rejected empirically in favor of a modification that allows for home bias in consumption and international technology differences.

The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries

American Economic Review 1995
The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem, which predicts that countries will export products that are made from factors in great supply, performs poorly. However, deviations from HOV follow pronounced patterns. Trade is missing relative to its HOV prediction. Also, rich countries appear scarce in most factors and poor countries appear abundant in all factors, a fact that squares poorly with the HOV prediction that abundant factors are exported. As suggested by the patterns, HOV is rejected empirically in favor of a modification that allows for home bias in consumption and international technology differences. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.

International Factor Price Differences: Leontief was Right!

Journal of Political Economy 1993 101(6), 961-987
The factor price equalization hypothesis is widely at odds with the large variation in factor prices across countries. Similarly, the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem constitutes an incomplete description of trade in factor services: its predictions are always rejected empirically. These two issues are examined using a modification of the HOV model that allows for factor-augmenting international productivity differences. The empirical results are stark: this simple modification of the HOV theorem explains much of the factor content of trade and the cross-country variation in factor prices.

Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy

Journal of Political Economy 1993 101(1), 138-160
Trade theorists continue to puzzle over their surprisingly small estimates of the impact of trade liberalization o n imports. All explanations of the puzzle treat trade liberalization as a given but the level of trade protection is not exogenous. The theo ry of endogenous protection predicts that higher levels of import penetration will lead to greater protection. This paper finds that, when trade protection is modeled endogenously, its restrictive impact on imports is large--ten times the size obtained from treating protection exogenously. Copyright 1993 by University of Chicago Press.

Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy

Journal of Political Economy 1993 101(1), 138-160
Trade theorists continue to puzzle over their surprisingly small estimates of the impact of trade liberalization on imports. All explanations of the puzzle treat trade liberalization as a given. But the level of trade protection is not exogenous. The theory of endogenous protection predicts that higher levels of import penetration will lead to greater protection. This paper finds that when trade protection is modeled endogenously, its restrictive impact on imports is large, 10 times the size obtained from treating protection exogenously.

International Factor Price Differences: Leontief was Right!

Journal of Political Economy 1993 101(6), 961-987
The factor price equalization hypothesis is widely at odds with the large variation in factor prices across countries. Similarly, the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem constitutes an incomplete description of trade in factor services: its predictions are always rejected empirically. These two issues are examined using a modification of the HOV model that allows for factor-augmenting international productivity differences. The empirical results are stark: this simple modification of the HOV theorem explains much of the factor content of trade and the cross-country variation in factor prices.

Improved Access to Foreign Markets Raises Plant-Level Productivity… for Some Plants*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2010 125(3), 1051-1099
Market size matters for innovation and hence for productivity. Improved access to foreign markets will thus encourage firms to simultaneously export and invest in raising productivity. We examine this insight using the responses of Canadian plants to the elimination of U.S. tariffs. Unique “plant-specific” tariff cuts serve as an instrument for changes in exporting. We find that Canadian plants that were induced by the tariff cuts to start exporting or to export more (a) increased their labor productivity, (b) engaged in more product innovation, and (c) had higher adoption rates for advanced manufacturing technologies. Further, these responses were heterogeneous.

Sorting It Out: International Trade with Heterogeneous Workers

Journal of Political Economy 2007 115(5), 868-892
Each worker brings a bundle of skills to the workplace, for example, quantitative and communication skills. Since employers must take this bundle as a package deal, they choose workers with just the right mix of skills. We show that international differences in the distribution of worker skill bundles—for example, Japan’s abundance of workers with a modest mix of both quantitative and teamwork skills—have important implications for international trade, industrial structure, and domestic income distribution. Formally, we model two‐dimensional worker heterogeneity and show that the second moments of the distribution of skills are critical, as in the Roy model.