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Indirect Effects of Access to Finance

American Economic Review 2024 114(8), 2308-2351
We created experimental variation across markets in China in the share of firms having access to a new loan product. Access to finance had a large positive direct effect on the performance of treated firms but a similar-sized negative indirect effect on that of firms with treated competitors, leading to nondetectable gains in producer surplus. Access to finance had a positive direct effect on business quality and consumer satisfaction and a negative effect on price, which were not offset by indirect effects, implying net gains in consumer surplus. We document other indirect effects and combine effects in a welfare evaluation.

Interfirm Relationships and Business Performance*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2018 133(3), 1229-1282 open access
We organized business associations for the owner-managers of young Chinese firms to study the effect of business networks on firm performance. We randomized 2,820 firms into small groups whose managers held monthly meetings for one year, and into a "no-meetings" control group. We find the following. (i) The meetings increased firm revenue by 8.1%, and also significantly increased profit, factors, inputs, the number of partners, borrowing, and a management score. (ii) These effects persisted one year after the conclusion of the meetings. (iii) Firms randomized to have better peers exhibited higher growth. We exploit additional interventions to document concrete channels. (iv) Managers shared exogenous business-relevant information, particularly when they were not competitors, showing that the meetings facilitated learning from peers. (v) Managers created more business partnerships in the regular than in other one-time meetings, showing that the meetings improved supplier-client matching.

Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand

American Economic Review 2020 110(8), 2422-2453
Using data from a two-year pricing experiment, we study the impact of subsidy policies on weather insurance take-up. Results show that subsidies increase future insurance take-up through their influence on payout experiences. Exploring mechanisms of the payout effect, we find that for households that randomly benefited from financial education, receiving a payout provides a one-time learning experience that improves take-up permanently. In contrast, households with poor insurance knowledge continuously update take-up decisions based on recent experiences with disasters and payouts. Combining subsidy policies with financial education can thus be effective in promoting long-run insurance adoption.

Improving Management Through Worker Evaluations: Evidence from Auto Manufacturing

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2022 137(4), 2459-2497
Using a randomized experiment with an automobile manufacturing firm in China, we measure the effects of letting workers evaluate their managers on worker and firm outcomes. In the treatment teams, workers evaluate their managers monthly. We find that providing feedback leads to significant reductions in worker turnover and increases in team-level productivity. In addition, workers report higher levels of happiness and well-being. The evidence suggests that these results are driven by learning by managers, leading to changes in their behavior and an overall better relationship between managers and workers.

Non-performing loans, moral hazard and regulation of the Chinese commercial banking system

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 63, 48-60 open access
Non-performing loans (NPLs) represent a major obstacle to the development of banking sector. One of the key objectives of the banking sector reforms in China has therefore been to reduce the high level of NPLs. To do so, Chinese regulatory authorities have injected significant capital into the banking system and scrutinized NPLs since 2003. This paper examines the impact of NPLs on bank behavior in China. Using a threshold panel regression model and a dataset covering 60 city commercial banks, 16 state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, and 11 rural commercial banks during 2006–2012, we test whether lending decisions of Chinese banks exhibit moral hazard. The results support the moral hazard hypothesis, suggesting that an increase in the NPLs ratio raises riskier lending, potentially causing further deterioration of the loan quality and financial system instability. Policy implications of findings are evaluated.