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The cross-border effects of bank capital regulation

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 160, 103912
We study the international coordination of bank capital requirements under a host-country rule: the requirement depends on where the borrower, not the bank, is located. In such a regime, countries compete for scarce bank equity capital. Raising a country’s requirement may generate bank capital outflows as well as inflows. We pin down the condition for the sign of the capital flow and the associated externality, and highlight the policy implications. Absent collaboration, overshooting is likely: individual countries have an incentive to increase Basel III’s Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer too much in good times and cut it too much in bad times.

Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Effects of the Lender of Last Resort

Review of Economic Studies 2022 89(4), 1654-1693 open access
Theory predicts that central-bank lending programs put ceilings on private domestic lending rates, reduce ex post financing risk, and encourage ex ante investment. This article shows that with global banks and integrated financial markets, but domestic central banks, then lending of last resort can be achieved using swap lines. Through them, a source central bank provides source-currency credit to recipient-country banks using the recipient central bank as the monitor and as the bearer of the credit risk. In theory, the swap lines should put a ceiling on deviations from covered interest parity, lower average ex post bank borrowing costs, and increase ex ante inflows from recipient-country banks into privately issued assets denominated in the source-country’s currency. Empirically, these three predictions are tested using variation in the terms of the swap line over time, variation in the central banks that have access to the swap line, variation in the days of the week in which the swap line is open, variation in the exposure of different securities to foreign investment, and variation in banks’ exposure to dollar funding risk. The evidence suggests that the international lender of last resort is very effective.

The Forced Safety Effect: How Higher Capital Requirements Can Increase Bank Lending

Journal of Finance 2020 75(6), 3013-3053 open access
ABSTRACT Government guarantees generate an implicit subsidy for banks. A capital requirement reduces this subsidy, through a simple liability composition effect. However, the guarantees also make a bank undervalue loans that generates surplus in states of the world in which it defaults. Raising the capital requirement makes the bank safer, which alleviates this problem. We refer to this mechanism, which we argue is empirically relevant, as the forced safety effect .

Home Values and Firm Behavior

American Economic Review 2020 110(7), 2225-2270 open access
The homes of firm owners are an important source of finance for ongoing businesses. We use UK microdata to show that a £1 increase in the value of the homes of a firm’s directors increases the firm’s investment by £0.03. This effect is concentrated among firms whose directors’ homes are valuable relative to the firm’s assets, that are financially constrained, and that have directors who are personally highly levered. An aggregation exercise shows that directors’ homes are as important as corporate property for collateral driven fluctuations in aggregate investment demand. (JEL D22, D25, E22, G31, G34, R31)

Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel

Review of Finance 2023 27(3), 851-887 open access
This article shows that lending relationships insulate corporate investment from fluctuations in collateral values. The sensitivity of corporate investment to changes in real-estate collateral values is halved when the length of relationship between a bank and a firm, or its board of directors, doubles. Long relationships with board members dominate relationships with the firm in dampening the collateral channel. Moreover, lending relationships with directors in their personal capacity insulate corporate investment over and above corporate relationships. Our findings support theories where collateral and private information are substitutes in mitigating credit frictions over the cycle and show that lending relationships are more multi-faceted than previously thought.

Customer data access and fintech entry: Early evidence from open banking

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 169, 103950 open access
Open banking (OB) empowers bank customers to share their financial transaction data with fintechs and other banks. New cross-country data shows 49 countries adopted OB policies, privacy preferences predict policy adoption, and adoption spurs fintech entry. UK microdata shows that OB enables: (i) consumers to access both financial advice and credit; (ii) SMEs to establish new lending relationships. In a calibrated model, OB universally improves welfare through entry and product improvements when used for advice. When used for credit, OB promotes entry and competition by reducing adverse selection, but higher prices for costlier or privacy-conscious consumers partially offset these benefits.