We study a Chinese policy that awards substantial tax cuts to firms with R&D investment over a threshold or “notch.” Quasi-experimental variation and administrative tax data show a significant increase in reported R&D that is partly driven by firms relabeling expenses as R&D. Structural estimates show relabeling accounts for 24.2 percent of reported R&D and that doubling R&D would increase productivity by 9 percent. Policy simulations show that firm selection and relabeling determine the cost-effectiveness of stimulating R&D, that notch-based policies are more effective than tax credits when relabeling is prevalent, and that modest spillovers justify the program from a welfare perspective.

We study a prominent energy regulation affecting large Chinese manufacturers that are part of broader conglomerates. Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences research designs, we show that regulated firms cut output and shifted some production to unregulated firms within their conglomerate instead of improving their energy efficiency. To account for conglomerate and market spillovers, we interpret these results through the lens of an industry equilibrium model featuring conglomerate production. The policy raises welfare if the per ton benefits of carbon reduction exceed $161. Alternative policies that exploit public information on business networks can increase aggregate energy savings by 10 percent.