We document that the aggregate hiring rate of publicly traded firms in the U.S. economy negatively predicts stock market returns and long-term cash flows, and positively predicts short-term cash flows. In addition, through a variance decomposition, we show that the time-series variation in the aggregate hiring rate is mainly driven by changes in discount rates and short-term expected cash flows, with no contribution from variation in long-term expected cash flows. We estimate a neoclassical dynamic model with labor market frictions and show that labor adjustment costs and time-varying risk are essential for the model to replicate the empirical patterns.

Previous studies have identified a negative relation between firms’ hiring rates and future stock returns in the cross-section. We document that this relation is significantly steeper in industries that rely relatively more on high-skill workers than low-skill workers. A long-short portfolio sorted on firm-level hiring rate earns an average annual return of 8.6% in high-skill industries, and only 0.9% in low-skill industries. Moreover, this pattern is not explained by the standard CAPM. These findings are consistent with a neoclassical model with labor force heterogeneity and labor market frictions if it is more costly to replace high-skill than low-skill workers. Received August 14, 2015; editorial decision December 31, 2016 by Editor Leonid Kogan.

What are the economic determinants of a firm’s market value? We answer this question through the lens of a generalized neoclassical model of investment with quasi-fixed labor and three heterogeneous capital inputs. We estimate the structural model using firm-level data on US firms and find that, on average and depending on the industry, installed labor force accounts for 14–21% of firms’ market value, physical capital accounts for 30–40%, knowledge capital accounts for 20–43%, and brand capital accounts for 6–25%. Our analysis provides direct empirical evidence for the importance of labor and intangible capital inputs for understanding firm value.