Knowledge that Transforms

This study investigated the likely effects of undergraduate economics on whether a college graduate has opened a retirement account four years after graduation. Economic education is measured by the number of economics credit hours or whether a college graduate had majored in economics. Additional control variables for the logit analyses include occupation differences, employment record, and some demographics. Completing an undergraduate course in economics is significantly associated with having a retirement account, and economics majors are more likely than some other majors to have a retirement account. The analysis uses college transcript data from the Baccalaureate and Beyond study ( nces.ed.gov/surveys/b&b/ ).

I estimate gender price discrimination in the Ugandan antimalarial drug market with an audit study. To determine whether results are consistent with statistical or taste-based discrimination, I contrast gender results with results by ethnicity (tribe). Vendors initially offer women prices that are $0.12 (3 percent) higher. However, women are 16 percentage points more likely to successfully bargain for a discount, resulting in no differential in price paid. Results are stronger among majority-tribe females. I find no differences in drug quality. Both women and minorities report better service quality. Offer price differentials suggest statistical discrimination; there is no differential for prices paid.

There has been a large rise in US top income inequality since the 1980s. We merge a widely studied model of the Pareto tail of labor incomes with a canonical model of consumption and savings to study the consequences of this increase for aggregate demand. Our model suggests that the rise of the top 1 percent may have led to a large increase in desired savings and can explain a 0.45pp to 0.85pp decline in long-run real interest rates. This effect arises from both a wealth effect at the top and increased precautionary savings from declines lower in the income distribution.

This project uses third-party information reporting and population-level administrative tax data to identify the population of nonfilers. This population consists of individuals who do not file a tax return despite having income reported by third parties to the United States Internal Revenue Service. After identifying and characterizing this population, we identified nonfilers who may have been eligible for Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) benefits. Using an experimental sample drawn from this population of potentially EITC-eligible nonfilers, we conducted two randomized controlled trials to test multiple hypotheses regarding inattention and recency effects in these low-income earners' tax filing decisions.

The US workforce has had little change in real wages, income, or earnings since the year 2000. However, even when there is little change in the average rate at which workers are compensated, individual workers experienced a distribution of wage and earnings changes. In this paper, we demonstrate how earnings evolve in the US economy in the years 2001-2014 on a forthcoming dataset on earnings for stayers and transitioners from the U.S. Census Bureau's Job-to-Job Flows data product. We account for the roles of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment in the growth of U.S. earnings.

Simple interventions like changing the default or sending a short message can induce individuals to save more for retirement. However, messages that emphasize high savings rates may increase the amount that savings plan participants save while reducing the total number of plan participants. We study this possibility in the context of a field experiment designed to increase retirement savings by US military service-members. We find that service-members who received a message emphasizing a low contribution rate were more likely to participate in a savings plan than were service-members whose message emphasized a high contribution rate, or no rate at all.

Excess male mortality at early ages is an important source of child inequality in most societies. We examine how improvement in the quality of political institutions affects the male survival disadvantage. Using data on twins in combination with a natural experiment on the development of African institutions, we quantify the distinct effects of biology and preconception environment on the infant mortality sex gap and find that these effects are important only in poor institutions. The analysis implies that improved institutions constrain genetic expression and mitigate preconception influences on excess male infant mortality, which is an optimistic finding with pragmatic implications.

Recent literature has documented failures of truthful preference reporting in the strategy-proof deferred acceptance algorithm. I consider the implications of these strategic mistakes for a common welfare consideration: the ability of the mechanism to sort the best students to the best schools. I find that these mistakes have the potential to significantly help or significantly hinder sorting. Through this channel, the presence of mistaken play may have widely varying welfare effects. I discuss related considerations in the welfare evaluation of mistaken play in the deferred acceptance algorithm and the implications for “nudges” that correct these mistakes.

This paper provides evidence from a negotiation experiment that the 2016 US presidential election of Donald Trump had a profound impact on individual behavior in the lab. Using a Battle of the Sexes game with unstructured communication, we find that post-election individuals are less cooperative in general, more likely to use adversarial negotiation strategies, and less likely to reach an agreement. Furthermore, this is particularly driven by men acting more aggressively toward women. Our results are robust to controlling for sample selection. These results suggest that Trump's election may have disrupted community norms around civility and chivalry.

We propose a new approach to identify the strength of the precautionary motive and the extent of self-insurance in response to earnings risk based on Euler equation estimates. To address endogeneity problems, we use Norwegian administrative data and instrument consumption and earnings volatility with the variance of firm-specific shocks. The instrument is valid because firms pass some of their productivity shocks onto wages; moreover, for most workers, firm shocks are hard to avoid. Our estimates suggest a coefficient of relative prudence of 2, in a very plausible range.