Knowledge that Transforms

Does monetary policy influence who becomes a homeowner? Lower-income home buyers may be more sensitive to interest rates, at least in part because they more frequently come up against binding payment-to-income ratio constraints in credit decisions. Exploiting the timing of high-frequency observations of individual mortgage rate locks around monetary policy shocks, I find that a 1 percentage point policy-induced increase in mortgage rates lowers the presence of lower-income households in the population of home buyers by 1 to 2 percentage points immediately following the shock. Effects are substantially stronger among first-time home buyers and persist for approximately one year.

We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust moment for local average treatment effects, are consistent and asymptotically normal even with heterogeneous probabilities of assignment and misspecified regression adjustments. We propose an optimal but potentially misspecified linear adjustment and its further improvement via a nonlinear adjustment, both of which lead to more efficient estimators than the one without adjustments. We also provide conditions for nonparametric and regularized adjustments to achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound under CARs.

We report the results of two experiments designed to better understand the mechanisms driving decision making under ambiguity. We elicit individual preferences over different sources of uncertainty, entailing different degrees of complexity, from subjects with different sophistication levels. We show that (1) ambiguity aversion is robust to sophistication, but the strong relationship previously reported between attitudes toward ambiguity and compound risk is not and (2) Ellsberg ambiguity attitude can be partly explained by attitudes toward complexity for less sophisticated subjects only. Overall, regardless of the subject’s sophistication level, the main driver of Ellsberg ambiguity attitude is a specific treatment of unknown probabilities.

The US tax system allows taxpayers to deduct local taxes from their taxable incomes. Using school district referendum results, we employ a continuous treatment two-way fixed-effects framework to provide causal evidence of a positive relation between the demand for local public goods and the share of residents deducting local taxes. We find that a 1 percentage point decrease in the share of residents deducting property taxes reduces tax and bond referendum approval rates by approximately 0.97 percentage points. Because these federal tax deductions disproportionately benefit higher-income individuals, they potentially widen disparities in public service provision across jurisdictions.

Despite the continuing U.S. hospital merger wave, it remains unclear how mergers change, or fail to change, hospital behavior and performance. We open the black box of hospital practices through a megamerger between two for-profit chains. Benchmarking the merger's effects against the acquirer's stated aims, we show they achieved some of their goals, harmonizing electronic medical records and sending managers to target hospitals. Postacquisition managerial processes were similar across the merged chain. However, these interventions failed to drive detectable gains in performance. Our findings demonstrate the importance of organizations for merger research in health care and the economy more generally.

Urban forests are ubiquitous, yet their impacts and values remain largely unknown. We study a massive urban afforestation policy in Beijing that planted 1/3 of a million acres of greenery in less than a decade. We conduct a remote-sensing audit of the program, finding that it contributes to a substantial greening up of the city. This causes significant downwind air quality improvement, reducing average PM2.5 concentration at city population hubs by 4.2%. Rapid vegetation growth unexpectedly led to a 7.4% increase in pollen exposure. Analysis of medical claims data shows that increased aeroallergens triggered emergency room visits, mirroring pollution effects though much less severe. Monetized net health benefits of the program amount to 1.5% of the city’s GDP. Urban forests are only partially capitalized in housing values, with buyers mainly appreciating proximity to green spaces but not the air quality improvements they bring.

This study explores the relationship between legalized sports gambling, unexpected emotional cues stemming from NFL home team upset losses and reported intimate partner violence (IPV). Using 1995–2022 crime data from NIBRS, replicating and extending Card and Dahl (2011)’s model, we find that legalized gambling increases the impact of upset losses on IPV by 10 percentage points. The e!ect is larger in states with mobile betting, where higher bets were placed, around paydays, and for teams on a winning streak. These results suggest that financial losses from gambling amplify emotional reactions to unexpected team losses.

We develop a new test for conditional moment restrictions via nonparametric series regression, with approximating functions selected by Lasso. A key novelty of our approach is to account for the effect of the data-driven selection, yielding a new critical value constructed on the basis of a nonstandard truncated-Gaussian asymptotic approximation. We show that the test is correctly sized and attains a well-defined sense of adaptiveness that may result in better power than existing methods. The improvement afforded by the new test is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application on the conditional evaluation of inflation forecasts.

This paper documents the bias introduced by attrition of individuals from administrative data with an application to the labor market consequences of postsecondary education. Attrition due to crossstate migration is non-trivial, particularly for high-earners, graduates from selective universities, and certain majors. Consequently, the premium associated with graduating from a most selective university is 23% higher than in-state earnings suggests, though this magnitude differs across context. The impact of obtaining a 2-year CTE credential is also understated, as are earnings differences across majors. Differences in missingness are systematically related to bias in measurement; we evaluate approaches to quantifying that bias.

We study how public school teachers use paid sick leave. Most US sick leave schemes operate as individualized credit accounts: Paid leave is earned, and unused leave accumulates. We construct a unique dataset of daily leave balances and behavior among 982 teachers for 2010–2018. Sick leave use increases during flu season, and evidence indicates that the average teacher does not use sick leave for leisure, though some subsets of teachers (e.g., the young and inexperienced) do. Usage increases with leave balance; the elasticity is around 0.4. Further, teachers with higher balances are less likely to work sick, particularly during flu season.