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Learning with Information Capacity Constraints

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2005 40(2), 307-329 open access
Abstract Motivated by the fact that investors have limited time and attention to process information, this paper provides a continuous-time equilibrium model to analyze the effects of a capacity constraint in the learning process of a representative investor, who optimally allocates her information capacity across multiple sources of uncertainty. Consequently, the cross-sectional structure of information and the resulting asset price dynamics are determined endogenously. The model provides implications on both consumption behavior and the cross-sectional differences in price informativeness in terms of supply of information, speed of price adjustments to fundamental shocks, and price reactions to firm disclosures.

Executive pay and shareholder litigation

Review of Finance 2008 12(1), 141-184 open access
Abstract The paper examines the impact of executive compensation on private securities litigation. We find that incentive pay in the form of options increases the probability of securities class action litigation, holding constant a wide range of firm characteristics. We further document that there is abnormal upward earnings manipulation during litigation class periods and that insiders exercise more options and sell more shares during class periods, but that this activity is largely driven by pre-existing option holdings of the managers. Our results suggest that option-based compensation may have the unintended side effect of giving executives an incentive to focus excessively on the short term share price.

Liquidity Shocks and Stock Market Reactions

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(5), 1434-1485
We find that the stock market underreacts to stock-level liquidity shocks: liquidity shocks are not only positively associated with contemporaneous returns, but they also predict future return continuations for up to six months. Long-short portfolios sorted on liquidity shocks generate significant returns of 0.70% to 1.20% per month that are robust across alternative shock measures and after controlling for risk factors and stock characteristics. Furthermore, we show that investor inattention and illiquidity contribute to the underreaction: while both are significant in explaining short-term return predictability of liquidity shocks, the inattention-based mechanism is more powerful for the longer-term return predictability.

Manipulation and Equity-Based Compensation

American Economic Review 2008 98(2), 285-290
Economists have long argued that a strong linkage between compensation and performance is essential for resolving the agency problem created by the separation of ownership and control. In particular Michael C. Jensen and Kevin J. Murphy (1990) were very influential in giving impetus to the view that such incentives were in need of strengthening. Compared to accounting benchmarks, the stock price is more forward looking, and it is responsive to all value-relevant information, including informal and unverifiable items of news. This makes stock and/or option awards an important part of optimal incentives, and constitutes a primary reason for seeking a public listing, as argued by Bengt Holmstrom and Jean Tirole (1993). Until recently, however, theories of optimal executive compensation have generally ignored the possibility that the stock price can be manipulated or falsified. It is becoming increasingly clear that this is an important issue. In a spate of recent scandals, companies have misled the investing public by vastly overstating their profitability and prospects, and substantive restatements of company accounts have become increasingly commonplace. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that executive pay in its current form may be at least in part responsible. Recent studies finding a link between unusual movements in performance measures (such as accounting yardsticks and publicly disclosed price-sensitive information) and compensation include Daniel Bergstresser and Thomas Philippon (2006), Natasha Burns and Simi Kedia (2006), and Peng and Roell (forthcoming). Thus, the benefits of stock-based incentives should be weighed against their side effects. This paper models optimal executive compensation in a setting where managers are in a position to influence the public perception of Manipulation and Equity-Based Compensation

Managerial Incentives and Stock Price Manipulation

Journal of Finance 2014 69(2), 487-526
ABSTRACT We present a rational expectations model of optimal executive compensation in a setting where managers are in a position to manipulate short‐term stock prices and the manipulation propensity is uncertain. We analyze the tradeoffs involved in conditioning pay on long‐ versus short‐term performance and show how manipulation, and investors' uncertainty about it, affects the equilibrium pay contract and the informativeness of prices. Firm and manager characteristics determine the optimal compensation scheme: the strength of incentives, the pay horizon, and the use of options. We consider how corporate governance and disclosure regulations can help create an environment that enables better contracting.

Estimation Based on Nearest Neighbor Matching: From Density Ratio to Average Treatment Effect

Econometrica 2023 91(6), 2187-2217 open access
Nearest neighbor (NN) matching is widely used in observational studies for causal effects. Abadie and Imbens (2006) provided the first large‐sample analysis of NN matching. Their theory focuses on the case with the number of NNs, M fixed. We reveal something new out of their study and show that once allowing M to diverge with the sample size an intrinsic statistic in their analysis constitutes a consistent estimator of the density ratio with regard to covariates across the treated and control groups. Consequently, with a diverging M , the NN matching with Abadie and Imbens' (2011) bias correction yields a doubly robust estimator of the average treatment effect and is semiparametrically efficient if the density functions are sufficiently smooth and the outcome model is consistently estimated. It can thus be viewed as a precursor of the double machine learning estimators.

The impact of joint participation on liquidity in equity and syndicated bank loan markets

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2012 21(1), 50-78
Market liquidity is impacted by the presence of financial intermediaries that are informed and active participants in both the equity and the syndicated bank loan markets, specifically informationally advantaged lead arrangers of syndicated bank loans that simultaneously act as equity market makers (dual market makers). Employing a two-stage procedure with instrumental variables, we identify the simultaneous equations model of liquidity and dual market maker decisions. We find that the presence of dual market makers improves the liquidity of the more competitive and transparent equity markets, but widens the spread in the less competitive over-the-counter loan market, particularly for small, informationally opaque firms.

Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning

Journal of Financial Economics 2006 80(3), 563-602
Motivated by psychological evidence that attention is a scarce cognitive resource, we model investors’ attention allocation in learning and study the effects of this on asset-price dynamics. We show that limited investor attention leads to category-learning behavior, i.e., investors tend to process more market and sector-wide information than firm-specific information. This endogenous structure of information, when combined with investor overconfidence, generates important features observed in return comovement that are otherwise difficult to explain with standard rational expectations models. Our model also demonstrates new cross-sectional implications for return predictability.

Resiliency and Stock Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(2), 747-782
Abstract We present resiliency as a measure of liquidity and assess its relationship to expected returns. We establish a covariance-based measure, RES, that captures opening period resiliency, and use it to find a significant nonresiliency premium that ranges from 33 to 57 basis points per month. The premium persists after accounting for an extensive list of other liquidity-related measures and control variables. The results are significant for both value-weighted and equal-weighted returns, when micro-cap stocks are excluded, and for a sample of large cap stocks. The premium is particularly pronounced when trading volume is high. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Investor Attention and Insider Trading

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(5), 2293-2333 open access
Abstract We identify a new mechanism of opportunistic insider trading linked to attention-driven mispricing. Insiders are more likely to sell their company’s stock during periods of heightened retail attention and more inclined to buy when attention diminishes. The results are particularly pronounced for lottery-type stocks and firms with substantial retail ownership. We demonstrate that our findings—which relate to indicators of mispricing, retail order imbalances, and Robinhood herding episodes—extend to seasoned equity issuances and cannot be solely explained by firm fundamentals. Attention-based insider trading is less likely to result in SEC enforcement actions and persists across different regulatory regimes.