This paper takes as given that (i) the burning of fossil fuel increases the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, which (ii) in turn leads to global heating and global climate change of a

An effective climate change treaty must promote the joint supply of two global public goods: climate change mitigation and knowledge of new technologies that can lower mitigation costs. R&D is especially needed to bring about substantial, long-term reductions in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, for this will require the development and diffusion of revolutionary, “breakthrough ” technologies (Martin I. Hoffert et al. 2002). In principle, such an outcome could be realized by the Kyoto Protocol approach, if that agreement were strengthened over time. However, that response may be inadequate (Kyoto makes no provision for R&D)—and, as I shall demonstrate, unlikely to succeed in any event. Can a treaty system relying directly on targeted R&D and the adoption of breakthrough technologies perform better in this same setting of anarchic international relations? I shall show that, as a general rule, the answer is no. Essentially, the same forces that undermine Kyoto also challenge the R&D and technology approach. There is one exception to this rule: R&D leading to breakthrough technologies exhibiting increasing returns can improve dramatically on the Kyoto approach, even when these technologies are otherwise inferior to the alternatives available. This suggests that our approach to treaty design should be strategic. 2I. The Kyoto Approach Begin by considering the abatement decisions of countries in the absence of a multilateral agreement. Let qi denote country i’s abatement and let Q denote aggregate abatement; with N countries, Q = qi i=1 N Â. Finally, let country i’s payoff be given by p i = bQ- c qi

William D. Nordhaus delivered his Prize Lecture on 8 December 2018 at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University.

We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help determine the population growth rate in pre-industrial Iceland: a year 1 degree Celsius cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders adapt to prolonged changes in climate after 20 years. These adaptations reduce the short run effect of annual change in temperature by about 60%. Finally, a 1 degree Celsius sustained decrease in temperature decreases the steady state population by 10% to 26%.

This paper argues that while a long-term solution to climate change may require the global market-based solution envisioned in the Kyoto Protocol, a more flexible near-term approach is necessary. First, a broad range of domestic policies need to be embraced and encouraged by an international agreement, not constrained or discouraged by it. Second, developing countries need to be an increased focus of engagement, with expansion and reform of project-based crediting. Finally, a global agreement needs to recognize both technology and mitigation policies and to develop ways to evaluate efforts along each of these dimensions. Over the longer term, such an agreement should evolve toward greater reliance on global market-based solutions, and therefore near-term steps should be viewed both in terms of their immediate practicality and their potential to be refined over time.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

In contemplating the future course of economic growth in the West, scientists are divided between one group crying and another which denies that species' existence. One persistent concern has been that man's economic activities would reach a scale where the global climate would be significantly affected. Unlike many of the wolf cries, this one, in my opinion, should be taken very seriously. The present article will first give a brief overview of the climatic implications of economic activity with special reference to carbon dioxide, and then will present possible strategies for control. A more complete report with references to the literature on climatic change is contained in Nordhaus (1976). It is thought that the economic activities which most affect climate are agriculture and energy. Of these, the latter is probably more significant, is certainly more easily analyzed, and will be discussed here. In the energy sector, emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, and heat are of significance for the global climate.

Predictions of future climate and atmospheric conditions are reviewed and the implications for agriculture in different areas of the world are identified. The SWOPSIM (static world policy simulation) model used to evaluate the worldwide economic effects of climate change is described. An economic sensitivity analysis of concurrent yield losses in major grain-producing regions considering the possibility of concurrent changes in production potential elsewhere in the world is reported. Agricultural impacts of climate change based on three general circulation models are evaluated.

With a focus on two sorts of regulation—renewable electricity and clean energy standards, and automobile fuel-economy standards—we analyze problematic interactions that arise when state policies are nested within the domain of Federal policy. Here state efforts may fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationally, and may compromise cost-effectiveness. Difficulties from overlapping regulations are avoidable through price- (as opposed to quantity-) based Federal policy. We identify some potentially positive interactions between state and Federal policies, and identify rationales for state action when Federal and state policies do not overlap.

This paper analyzes 19th and 20th century data from a well-known château in Bordeaux. The dataset includes information on weather conditions, starting dates of three phenological stages of grapevine, prices, and yields. We discuss how these variables have evolved over the last two centuries. We also study to what extent the impact of climate on yields and prices has changed over time. Our regression analysis suggests that the effect of temperature on yields has become weaker since the 19th century. The influence on prices has, on the contrary, become stronger.