Knowledge that Transforms

In 1954 the United States Supreme Court ruled that separate schools for black and white children were “inherently unequal.” This paper studies whether the desegregation plans of the next 30 years benefited black and white students in desegregated school districts. Data from the 1970 and 1980 censuses suggest desegregation plans of the 1970's reduced high school dropout rates of blacks by two to three percentage points during this decade. No significant change is observed among whites. The results are robust to controls for family income, parental education, and state- and region-specific trends, as well as to tests for selective migration.

Prospect theory, loss aversion, mental accounts, hyperbolic discounting, cues, and the endowment effect can all be seen as examples of situationalism -- the view that people isolate decisions and overweight immediate aspects of the situation relative to longer term concerns. But outside of the laboratory, emotionally-powerful situational factors -- frames, social influence, mental accounts -- are almost always endogenous and often the result of self-interested entrepreneurs. As such, laboratory work and, indeed, psychology more generally, gives us little guidance as to market outcomes. Economics provides a stronger basis for understanding the supply of emotionally-relevant situational variables. Paradoxically situationalism actually increases the relative importance of economics.

Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates? by Harald Hau and Hélène Rey. Published in volume 94, issue 2, pages 126-133 of American Economic Review, May 2004

This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It introduces and employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates by averaging OLS coefficients across models. The weights given to individual regressions have a Bayesian justification similar to the Schwarz model selection criterion. Of 67 explanatory variables we find 18 to be significantly and robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another three variables to be marginally related. The strongest evidence is for the relative price of investment, primary school enrollment, and the initial level of real GDP per capita.

When bidders exhibit multi-unit demands, standard auction methods generally yield inefficient outcomes. This article proposes a new ascending-bid auction for homogeneous goods, such as Treasury bills or telecommunications spectrum. The auctioneer announces a price and bidders respond with quantities. Items are awarded at the current price whenever they are “clinched,” and the price is incremented until the market clears. With private values, this (dynamic) auction yields the same outcome as the (sealed-bid) Vickrey auction, but has advantages of simplicity and privacy preservation. With interdependent values, this auction may retain efficiency, whereas the Vickrey auction suffers from a generalized Winner's Curse.

A Comment on the Economics of Labor Adjustment: Mind the Gap: Rejoinder by Russell Cooper and Jonathan L. Willis. Published in volume 94, issue 4, pages 1245-1247 of American Economic Review, September 2004

Wealthier people live longer and experience less morbidity than do poorer people, in both developed and developing countries. While the association between income and health status has been well documented, the mechanisms leading to this correlation are unclear. In this paper, we use data collected from an informal urban township in South Africa to examine the extent to which compliance with medical protocols plays a role in the observed income-health gradient. Specifically, we look at adherence to protocols among individuals diagnosed with hypertension.

What are the determinants of health and of well-being? Income and wealth are clearly part of the story, but does access to health care have a large independent effect, as the advocates of more investment in health care, such as the World Health Organization’s Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, 2001), have argued? This paper reports on a recent survey in a poor rural area of the state of Rajasthan in India intended to shed some light on this issue, where there was an attempt to use a set of interlocking surveys to collect data on health and economic status, as well as the public and private provision of health care.

We examine the entry behavior of producers in different industries in different ex-port markets using a comprehensive dataset of French firms. These data reveal enormous heterogeneity, primarily within industries, in the nature of entry into different markets. Nonetheless, some striking regularities appear both across and within industries. The French data add a new dimension to an emerging empirical literature examining international trade at the level of individual producers. Andrew Bernard and J. Bradford Jensen (1995, 1999), Sofronis Clerides et al. (1998), and Bee Yan Aw et al. (2000), among others, have shown that: (i) exporters are typically in the minority; (ii) they tend to be more productive and larger; (iii) yet they usually export only a small fraction of their output. The findings that most firms do not export while those that do sell most of what they make at home suggest substantial barriers to exporting. Theories of producer export behavior have suggested either standard “iceberg ” costs, e.g., Bernard et al. (2003) or