Knowledge that Transforms

We suggest a general, heuristic method, based on elementary notions of price theory, for dealing with the question of anticipated changes in models of perfect foresight. The method is illustrated for the case of anticipated shocks to the state variable; in this context the standard "shadow price continuity condition" fails, while the method presented here applies. After presenting the general solution, it is used to analyze various examples of preannounced changes.

This paper develops a normative model of regulatory policy toward bypass and cream skimming. It analyzes the effects of bypass on second-degree price discrimination, on the rent of the regulated firm, and on the welfare of low-demand customers. It shows that pricing under marginal cost may be optimal for the regulated firm, excessive cream skimming occurs if access to the bypass technology is not regulated, and the prohibition of bypass may increase or decrease the regulated firm's rent.

By committing to terminate funding if a firm's performance is poor, investors can mitigate managerial incentive problems. These optimal financial constraints, however, encourage rivals to ensure that a firm's performance is poor; this raises the chance that the financial constraints become binding and induce exit. We analyze the optimal financial contract in light of this predatory threat. The optimal contract balances the benefits of deterring predation by relaxing financial constraints against the cost of exacerbating incentive problems.

By affecting relative economic returns, public infrastructure investments can induce major changes in private land use. We find that 30 percent of forested wetland depletion in the Mississippi Valley has resulted from private decisions induced by federal flood-control projects, despite explicit federal policy to preserve wetlands. Our model aggregates individual land-use decisions using a parametric distribution of unobserved land quality; dynamic simulations are used to quantify the impacts on wetlands of federal projects and other factors.