Knowledge that Transforms

The current financial crisis in the commercial airline industry has engendered an active debate over appropriate governmental policies. Proponents of government support, instrumental in legislating a $5 billion cash transfer and $10 billion loan guarantee fund for U.S. carriers following September 11, 2001, point to the critical role that airlines play in the U.S. economy and the devastating effects airline failures could have on air service. Opponents argue that most airlines continue to operate through bankruptcy resolution and that even a complete shutdown of a major carrier, which rarely occurs, would stimulate expansion by other airlines to replace its abandoned flights. This debate highlights the need to understand the causal effect of airline financial distress on airline operations, distinct from correlations that may exist as a result of adverse demand or cost shocks that lead to both service declines and financial distress. We focus on airline Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, an extreme measure of financial distress. We use data from 1984 through 2001 to evaluate the impact of major bankruptcies on the level of flights and destinations served at U.S. airports. Our results suggest that bankruptcy induces modest declines in service levels, particularly at midsize airports. This raises the question of whether such declines are socially inefficient. Restrictions imposed by the bankruptcy court judge or the creditors of an airline operating under Chapter 11 may affect total industry output or capacity offered if other carriers cannot rapidly replace the production of the constrained firm (i.e., if firms are not homogeneous and entry is not costless). With heterogeneous firms, one firm may be uniquely positioned to supply a flight, and its decision not to do so may lead to a reduction in total service. This is particularly likely in network industries, such as airlines, where there are strong production complementarities across routes. It is also possible, however, that pre-bankruptcy service levels were inefficiently high. The bankrupt carrier may have overprovided service, perhaps in an attempt to build market share, or flight-frequency competition among carriers may have led to excessive flights. In these cases, the flight reduction associated with bankruptcy may cause a movement toward the socially optimal level of service. Our work takes a first step toward resolving this issue, by determining the magnitude of bankruptcy effects on aggregate air service. The results suggest the need for further research to assess its possible welfare implications.

Since the early 1980's, patterns of emergingmarket finance have changed significantly. Greater integration of capital markets and a trend toward a greater use of direct lending through bonds has led to relatively decreased use of indirect finance through syndicated bank loans. These changes have produced benefits to investors through opportunities for risk diversification and to emerging-market sovereign borrowers by increasing the investor base. The broadened investor base in bond financing, however, raises problems of coordination and collective action in the event of a sovereign borrower's default and restructuring. Now, three parties are involved in determining the debt markdown required to produce solvency: the debtor, creditors, and the global taxpayer through international financial institutions (IFI's). The complex relationships among the borrowers, creditors, and the global taxpayer have made restructuring obligations a costly and time-consuming exercise, especially with the possibility of holdouts. Both the sovereign borrower and its creditors have an incentive to avoid a restructuring in the hope of financial assistance from the global taxpayer. Sovereign governments may not undertake the politically painful steps involved in beginning a restructuring when there is always the hope that official assistance will be forthcoming. Creditors may not accept a reduction in the value of their claims, also in the hope that official assistance will be forthcoming. Costs of postponed and disorderly restructurings are real and substantial. Delays in restructuring can drain a country's resources and increase the ultimate costs of restoring financial sustainability. Creditors bear a burden as well, because the losses associated with the restructuring are reflected in values of

Gravity equations have been widely used to infer trade flow effects of various institutional arrangements. We show that estimated gravity equations do not have a theoretical foundation. This implies both that estimation suffers from omitted variables bias and that comparative statics analysis is unfounded. We develop a method that (i) consistently and efficiently estimates a theoretical gravity equation and (ii) correctly calculates the comparative statics of trade frictions. We apply the method to solve the famous McCallum border puzzle. Applying our method, we find that national borders reduce trade between industrialized countries by moderate amounts of 20–50 percent.

Segerstrom (1998) demonstrates that the social optimum requires “radical” technological breakthroughs to be treated less favorably than “incremental” innovations in a growing economy. The aim of this note is to assess the robustness of this welfare result on the basis of two levels of generalization: (i) the elasticity of substitution between any two goods is allowed to be larger than one, and (ii) inter-industry spillovers are introduced. We show that Segerstrom’s results can be reversed. It is also shown that in contrast to Segerstrom, R&D subsidies can be globally optimal, irrespective of the size of innovation, when inter-industry spillovers are large.

In many of the decisions we make we rely on the advice of others who have preceded us. For example, before we buy a car, choose a dentist, choose a spouse, find a school for our children, sign on to a retirement plan, etc. we usually ask the advice of others who have experience with such decisions. The same is true when we make major financial decisions. Here people easily take advice from their fellow workers or relatives as to how to choose stock, balance a portfolio, or save for their child’s education. Although some advice we get is from experts, most of the time we make our decisions relying only on the rather uninformed word-of-mouth advice we get from our friends or neighbors. We call this ?aive advice? In this paper I will outline a set of experimental results that indicate that word-of-mouth advice is a very powerful force in shaping the decisions that people make and tends to push those decisions in the direction of the predictions of the rational theory.

Inference methods that recognize the clustering of individual observations have been available for more than 25 years. Brent Moulton (1990) caught the attention of economists when he demonstrated the serious biases that can result in estimating the effects of aggregate explanatory variables on individual-specific response variables. The source of the downward bias in the usual ordinary least-squares (OLS) standard errors is the presence of an unobserved, state-level effect in the error term. More recently, John Pepper (2002) showed how accounting for multi-level clustering can have dramatic effects on t statistics. While adjusting for clustering is much more common than it was 10 years ago, inference methods robust to cluster correlation are not used routinely across all relevant settings. In this paper, I provide an overview of applications of cluster-sample methods, both to cluster samples and to panel data sets.

Using three major U.K. pension reforms as natural experiments we investigate the relationship between pension saving and discretionary private savings. Unlike most differences-in-differences approaches which rely on average differences between control and treatment group, we use economic theory to model the response of each individual household. The empirical analysis, based on the Family Expenditure Survey, uses both time-series and cross-sectional variation to identify the behavioral response. The earnings-related tier of the pension scheme is found to have a negative impact on private savings with relatively high substitution elasticities; the impact of the flat-rate tier is not significantly different from zero.

Economics departments face increasing pressure to improve the quality of undergraduate instruction (William E. Becker, 2000). A teachertraining program (TTP) is one strategy departments can use to improve the quality of teaching. A TTP typically targets graduatestudent teaching assistants (TA’s) but can also provide valuable education to new junior faculty. The task set for this paper is to describe the ideal TTP. What is ideal is a matter of opinion. Mine is based on long experience with the TTP at the University of North Carolina–Chapel Hill, on familiarity with TTP’s at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Indiana University, and Purdue University, and on my experience as director of teaching workshops sponsored by the AEA Committee on Economic Education (Salemi et al., 1996). I begin with principles that should guide creation of a TTP, describe a TTP’s essential elements, and conclude with a consideration of resource issues.