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Monitoring in Small Firms: Experimental Evidence from Kenyan Public Transit

American Economic Review 2024 114(10), 3119-3160
Small firms struggle to grow beyond a few employees. We introduce monitoring devices into commuter minibuses in Kenya and randomize which minibus owners have access to the data using a novel mobile app. We find that treated vehicle owners modify the terms of the contract to induce higher effort and lower risk taking from their drivers. This reduces firm costs and increases firm profitability. There is suggestive evidence that some firms expand. These results suggest that small firms may be able to utilize monitoring technologies to overcome problems of moral hazard and enhance their profitability.

Competing to Commit: Markets with Rational Inattention

American Economic Review 2024 114(1), 285-306
Two homogeneous-good firms compete for a consumer’s unitary demand. The consumer is rationally inattentive and pays entropy costs to process information about firms’ offers. Compared to a collusion benchmark, competition produces two effects. As in standard models, competition puts downward pressure on prices. But, additionally, an attention effect arises: the consumer engages in trade more often. This alleviates the commitment problem that firms have when facing inattentive consumers and increases trade efficiency. For high enough attention costs, the attention effect dominates the effect on prices: firms’ profits are higher under competition than under collusion.

When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains

American Economic Review 2024 114(4), 988-1029 open access
We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. Then, the home government surprises with an input tariff. This can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or search for replacements. Calibrating the model’s parameters to match initial import shares and the estimated responses to the US tariffs imposed on China, we find an overall welfare loss of 0.12 percent of GDP, with substantial contributions from changes in input sourcing and search costs.

Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence

American Economic Review 2024 114(2), 500-533
Existing theories of media competition imply that advertisers will pay a lower price in equilibrium to reach consumers who multi-home across competing outlets. We generalize and extend this theoretical result and test it using data from television and social media advertising. We find that the model is a good match, qualitatively and quantitatively, to variation in advertising prices across demographic groups, outlets, platforms, and over time. We use the model to quantify the effects of competition within and across platforms.

Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

American Economic Review 2024 114(9), 2898-2939
We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—but not employment dynamics—during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool.