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Vertical Integration and Exclusivity in Platform and Two-Sided Markets

American Economic Review 2013 103(7), 2960-3000
This paper measures the impact of vertically integrated and exclusive software on industry structure and welfare in the sixth-generation of the US video game industry (2000–2005). I specify and estimate a dynamic model of both consumer demand for hardware and software products, and software demand for hardware platforms. I use estimates to simulate market outcomes had platforms been unable to own or contract exclusively with software. Driven by increased software compatibility, hardware and software sales would have increased by 7 percent and 58 percent and consumer welfare by $1.5 billion. Gains would be realized only by the incumbent, suggesting exclusivity favored the entrant platforms.

Preferences and Incentives of Appointed and Elected Public Officials: Evidence from State Trial Court Judges

American Economic Review 2013 103(4), 1360-1397 open access
We study how two selection systems for public officials, appointment and election, affect policy outcomes, focusing on state court judges and their criminal sentencing decisions. First, under appointment, policy congruence with voter preferences is attained through selecting judges with homogeneous preferences. In contrast, under election, judges face strong reelection incentives, while selection on preferences is weak. Second, the effectiveness of election in attaining policy congruence critically depends on payoffs from the job, which implies that the effectiveness of election may vary substantially across public offices. Third, reelection incentives may discourage judges with significant human capital from holding office.

Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008

American Economic Review 2013 103(6), 2530-2553 open access
We measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008, using questions added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey and variation from the randomized timing of disbursement. Households spent 12–30 percent (depending on specification) of their payments on nondurable goods during the three-month period of payment receipt, and a significant amount more on durable goods, primarily vehicles, bringing the total response to 50–90 percent of the payments. The responses are substantial and significant for older, lower-income, and home-owning households. Spending does not vary significantly with the method of disbursement (check versus electronic transfer).

Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve's First Centennial

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 48-54
The Federal Reserve's mandate has evolved considerably over the organization's hundred-year history. It was changed from an initial focus in 1913 on financial stability, to fiscal financing in World War II and its aftermath, to a strong anti-inflation focus from the late 1970s, and then back to greater emphasis on financial stability since the Great Contraction. Yet, as the Fed's mandate has expanded in recent years, its range of instruments has narrowed, partly based on a misguided belief in the inherent stability of financial markets. We argue for a return to multiple instruments, including a more active role for reserve requirements.

An exploratory study of the relationship between changes in emotion and cognitive processes and treatment outcome in borderline personality disorder

American Economic Review 2013 23(6), 658-673
This exploratory study examined specific emotion processes and cognitive problem-solving processes in individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD), and assessed the relationship of these changes to treatment outcome. Emotion and cognitive problem-solving processes were assessed using the Toronto Alexithymia Scale, the Linguistic Inquiry Word Count, the Derogatis Affect Balance Scale, and the Problem Solving Inventory. Participants who showed greater improvements in affect balance, problem solving, and the ability to identify and describe emotions showed greater improvements on treatment outcome, with affect balance remaining statistically significant under the most conservative conditions. The results provide preliminary evidence to support the theory that specific improvements in emotion and cognitive processes are associated with positive treatment outcomes (symptom distress, interpersonal functioning) in BPD. The implications for treatment are discussed.

Cyclical Variation in Labor Hours and Productivity Using the ATUS

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 99-104
We examine monthly variation in weekly work hours using data from 2003 to 2010. The data sources include the Current Population Survey (CPS) on hours/worker, the Current Employment Survey (CES) on hours/job, and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) on both. The ATUS data minimize recall difficulties and constrain hours of work to accord with total available time. The ATUS hours/worker are less cyclical than the CPS series, but the hours/job are more cyclical than the CES series. We present alternative estimates of productivity based on ATUS data, and find that it is more pro-cyclical than other productivity measures.

Measuring the Trends in Inequality of Individuals and Families: Income and Consumption

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 184-188
We present evidence on the level of and trend in inequality from 1985-2010 in the United States, using disposable income and consumption for a sample of individuals from the Consumer Expenditure (CE) Survey. Differing from the findings in other recent research, we find that the trends in income and consumption inequality are broadly similar between 1985 and 2006, but diverge during the Great Recession with consumption inequality decreasing and income inequality increasing. Given the differences in the trends in inequality in the last four years, using both income and consumption provides useful information.

Aggregating Local Preferences to Guide Marginal Policy Adjustments

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 605-610 open access
We propose a social choice rule for aggregating preferences elicited from surveys into a marginal adjustment of policy from the status quo. The mechanism is: (i) symmetric in its treatment of survey respondents; (ii) ordinal, using only the orientation of respondents' indifference surfaces; (iii) local, using only preferences in the neighborhood of current policy; and (iv) what we call “first-order strategy-proof,” making the gains from misreporting preferences second order. The mechanism could be applied to guide policy based on how policy affects responses to subjective well-being surveys.