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The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

American Economic Review 2022 112(11), 3489-3527
Global digital transformation contributes to the realization of national interests, the improvement of financial management, and the development of financial technologies in the corporate sector of the economy. In the current extremely difficult conditions of a full-scale war, as part of the renewal of the strategy of the financial sector, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, together with IMF experts, are gradually developing the principles of assessing the quality of assets and conducting stress tests for business entities and financial institutions.

Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas

American Economic Review 2002 92(1), 220-239
Rising educational attainment and research intensity in recent decades suggest that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state. This paper develops a model reconciling these facts with the stability of U.S. growth rates. In the model, long-run growth arises from the worldwide discovery of ideas, which depends on population growth. Nevertheless, constant growth can temporarily proceed at a faster rate, provided research intensity and educational attainment rise steadily over time. Growth accounting reveals that these factors explain 80 percent of recent U.S. growth, with less than 20 percent coming from world population growth.

Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?

American Economic Review 1999 89(2), 139-144
The property that ideas are nonrivalrous leads to a tight link between idea-based growth models and increasing returns to scale. In particular, changes in the size of an economy’s population generally affect either the long-run growth rate or the long-run level of income in such models. This paper provides a partial review of the expanding literature on idea-based models and scale effects. It presents simple versions of various recent idea-based growth models and analyzes their implications for the relationship between scale and growth.

The Role of Keynesians in Wartime Policy and Postwar Planning, 1940-1946

American Economic Review 1972
Early in 1940, Secretary of Commerce Harry Hopkins showed Franklin Roosevelt a brief outline of fiscal policies for defense as seen by economists on his staff. The first step was prompt expansion to the level of full by means of federal deficits. Then, once full employment is attained, the task of fiscal policy is twofold: (1) to maintain full employment; (2) to secure as rapidly as possible that orientation of production which our defense demands. Leon Henderson, Richard V. Gilbert, and other liberal Keynesian advisers were proceeding with the 1930's agenda of recovery. They viewed expenditures for national defense, together with exports of military goods, as

Private Information and Trade Timing

American Economic Review 2000 90(4), 1012-1018
This paper investigates the Bayesian decision-theoretic foundations of the Wall Street adage that `timing is everything'. One might think that a `small' risk-neutral trader wishes to act immediately upon any private information he possesses. I begin with a counterintuitive nding that trade timing doesn't matter for an Arrow security, as one's expected return per dollar invested is a martingale. This timing irrelevance discovery motivates an analysis of general compound securities. While timing there is ambiguous, I nd that natural monotone likelihood ratio assumptions on both private and public information restore the intuition that one should trade with all due dispatch.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)