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Extensive Form Reasoning in Normal Form Games

Econometrica 1993 61(2), 273
Different extensive form games with the same reduced normal form can have different information sets and subgames. This generates a tension between a belief in the strategic relevance of information sets and subgames and a belief in the sufficiency of the reduced normal form. We identify a property of extensive form information sets and subgames which we term strategic independence. Strategic independence is captured by the reduced normal form, and can be used to define normal form information sets and subgames. We prove a close relationship between these normal form structures and their extensive form namesakes. Using these structures, we are able to motivate and implement solution concepts corresponding to subgame perfection, sequential equilibrium, and forward induction entirely in the reduced normal form, and show close relations between their implications in the normal and extensive form.

Dynamic (S, s) Economies

Econometrica 1991 59(6), 1659 open access
In this paper we provide a framework to study the aggregate dynamic behavior of an economy where individual units follow (S, s) policies. We characterize structural and stochastic heterogeneities that ensure convergence of the economy's aggregate to that of its frictionless counterpart, determine the speed at which convergence takes place, and describe the transitional dynamics of this economy. In particular, we consider a dynamic economy where agents differ in their initial positions within their bands and face both stochastic and structural heterogeneity; where the former refers to the presence of (unit specific) idiosyncratic shocks, and the latter to differences in the widths of units' (S, s) bands and their response to aggregate shocks. We study the evolution of the economy's aggregate and the evolution of the difference between this aggregate and that of an economy without macroeconomic friction, where the latter pertains to a situation where individual units adjust with no delay to all shocks. We also examine the sensitivity of this difference to common shocks. For example, in the retail inventory problem the aggregate deviation and sensitivity to common shocks correspond to the aggregate inventory level and its sensitivity to aggregate demand shocks, respectively.

The Cost of Consumer Collateral: Evidence From Bunching

Econometrica 2025 93(3), 779-819 open access
How do collateral requirements impact consumer borrowing behavior? Using administrative loan application and performance data from the U.S. Federal Disaster Loan Program, we exploit a loan amount threshold above which households must post their residence as collateral. Our bunching estimates suggest that the median borrower is willing to give up 40% of their loan amount to avoid posting collateral. Exploiting time variation in the threshold, we estimate collateral causally reduces default rates by 36%. Finally, we structurally estimate households' attachment to their homes, net of any equity, and find a median value of $11,000. Attachment creates a wedge between lender and borrower valuation of collateral of 15%. Our results explain high perceived default costs in the mortgage market, and document the importance of collateral for reducing moral hazard in consumer credit markets.

Inference for Large‐Scale Linear Systems With Known Coefficients

Econometrica 2023 91(1), 299-327 open access
This paper considers the problem of testing whether there exists a non‐negative solution to a possibly under‐determined system of linear equations with known coefficients. This hypothesis testing problem arises naturally in a number of settings, including random coefficient, treatment effect, and discrete choice models, as well as a class of linear programming problems. As a first contribution, we obtain a novel geometric characterization of the null hypothesis in terms of identified parameters satisfying an infinite set of inequality restrictions. Using this characterization, we devise a test that requires solving only linear programs for its implementation, and thus remains computationally feasible in the high‐dimensional applications that motivate our analysis. The asymptotic size of the proposed test is shown to equal at most the nominal level uniformly over a large class of distributions that permits the number of linear equations to grow with the sample size.

Randomization Tests Under an Approximate Symmetry Assumption

Econometrica 2017 85(3), 1013-1030 open access
This paper develops a theory of randomization tests under an approximate symmetry as-sumption. Randomization tests provide a general means of constructing tests that control size in finite samples whenever the distribution of the observed data exhibits symmetry under the null hypothesis. Here, by exhibits symmetry we mean that the distribution remains invariant under a group of transformations. In this paper, we provide conditions under which the same construction can be used to construct tests that asymptotically control the probability of a false rejection whenever the distribution of the observed data exhibits approximate symmetry in the sense that the limiting distribution of a function of the data exhibits symmetry under the null hypothesis. An important application of this idea is in settings where the data may be grouped into a fixed number of “clusters ” with a large number of observations within each cluster. In such settings, we show that the distribution of the observed data satisfies our ap-proximate symmetry requirement under weak assumptions. In particular, our results allow for the clusters to be heterogeneous and also have dependence not only within each cluster, but also across clusters. This approach enjoys several advantages over other approaches in these settings. Among other things, it leads to a test that is asymptotically similar, which, as shown in a simulation study, translates into improved power at many alternatives. Finally, we use our results to revisit the analysis of Angrist and Lavy (2009), who examine the impact of a cash award on exam performance for low-achievement students in Israel.

EXcess Idle Time

Econometrica 2017 85(6), 1793-1846 open access
The gCube System - AquaMaps Species View Portlet<br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> Species view explorer portlet for AquaMaps suite<br> <br> <br> This software is part of the gCube Framework (https://www.gcube-system.org/): an<br> open-source software toolkit used for building and operating Hybrid Data<br> Infrastructures enabling the dynamic deployment of Virtual Research Environments<br> by favouring the realisation of reuse oriented policies.<br> <br> The projects leading to this software have received funding from a series of <br> European Union programmes including: <br> * the Sixth Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development - <br> DILIGENT (grant no. 004260); <br> * the Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and <br> demonstration - D4Science (grant no. 212488), D4Science-II (grant no. <br> 239019),ENVRI (grant no. 283465), EUBrazilOpenBio (grant no. 288754), iMarine <br> (grant no. 283644); <br> * the H2020 research and innovation programme - BlueBRIDGE (grant no. 675680), <br> EGIEngage (grant no. 654142), ENVRIplus (grant no. 654182), Parthenos (grant <br> no. 654119), SoBigData (grant no. 654024);<br> <br> <br> Version<br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> 1.3.3-4.0.0-130288 (2016-11-27)<br> <br> Please see the file named "changelog.xml" in this directory for the release notes.<br> <br> <br> <br> Authors<br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> * Fabio Sinibaldi (fabio.sinibaldi-AT-isti.cnr.it) Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell'Informazione "A. Faedo" - CNR, Pisa (Italy). <br> <br> Maintainers<br> -----------<br> <br> * Fabio Sinibaldi (fabio.sinibaldi-AT-isti.cnr.it) Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell'Informazione "A. Faedo" - CNR, Pisa (Italy). <br> <br> <br> <br> Download information<br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> Source code is available from SVN: <br> http://svn.research-infrastructures.eu/public/d4science/gcube/trunk/portlets/user/aquamapsspeciesview<br> <br> Binaries can be downloaded from the gCube website: <br> https://www.gcube-system.org/<br> <br> Installation<br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> Installation documentation is available on-line in the gCube Wiki:<br> https://wiki.gcube-system.org/gcube/index.php/AquaMaps_Suite<br> <br> Documentation <br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> Documentation is available on-line in the gCube Wiki:<br> https://wiki.gcube-system.org/gcube/index.php/AquaMaps_Suite<br> https://wiki.gcube-system.org/gcube/index.php/AquaMaps_Suite<br> <br> <br> Support <br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> Bugs and support requests can be reported in the gCube issue tracking tool:<br> https://support.d4science.org/projects/gcube/<br> <br> <br> Licensing<br> --------------------------------------------------<br> <br> This software is licensed under the terms you may find in the file named "LICENSE" in this directory.<br>