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Unemployment Insurance Rules, Joblessness, and Part-Time Work

Econometrica 1996 64(3), 647
developed and under general conditions an increase in the disregard is shown to increase both the part-time and overall re-employment hazards. Data from the Current Population Survey's Displaced Worker Supplements are used to test these predictions. Estimates from a competing risks model with correlated risks and time-varying coefficients shows that increasing the disregard significantly increases the conditional probability of part-time re-employment during the first three months of joblessness.

Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators

Econometrica 1996 64(1), 139 open access
It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time. Researchers adopt many strategies to accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity. Among the most popular: (a) chopping the data into short blacks of time and assuming homoskedasticity within the blocks, (b) performing one-sided rolling regressions, in which only data from, say, the preceding five year period is used to estimate the conditional covariance of returns at a given date, and (c) two-sided rolling regressions which use, say, five years of leads and five years of lags. GARCH amounts to a one-sided rolling regression with exponentially declining weights. We derive asymptotically optimal window lengths for standard rolling regressions and optimal weights for weighted rolling regressions. An empirical model of the S&P 500 stock index provides and example.