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Inference in Group Factor Models With an Application to Mixed‐Frequency Data

Econometrica 2019 87(4), 1267-1305
We derive asymptotic properties of estimators and test statistics to determine—in a grouped data setting—common versus group‐specific factors. Despite the fact that our test statistic for the number of common factors, under the null, involves a parameter at the boundary (related to unit canonical correlations), we derive a parameter‐free asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how the group factor setting applies to mixed‐frequency data. As an empirical illustration, we address the question whether Industrial Production (IP) is still the dominant factor driving the U.S. economy using a mixed‐frequency data panel of IP and non‐IP sectors. We find that a single common factor explains 89% of IP output growth and 61% of total GDP growth despite the diminishing role of manufacturing.

The Myopic Stable Set for Social Environments

Econometrica 2019 87(1), 111-138 open access
We introduce a new solution concept for models of coalition formation, called the myopic stable set (MSS). The MSS is defined for a general class of social environments and allows for an infinite state space. An MSS exists and, under minor continuity assumptions, it is also unique. The MSS generalizes and unifies various results from more specific applications. It coincides with the coalition structure core in coalition function form games when this set is nonempty; with the set of stable matchings in the Gale-Shapley matching model; with the set of pairwise stable networks and closed cycles in models of network formation; and with the set of pure strategy Nash equilibria in pseudo-potential games and finite supermodular games. We also characterize the MSS for the class of proper simple games.