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The information content of losses

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1995 20(2), 125-153
This study hypothesizes that because shareholders have a liquidation option, losses are not expected to perpetuate. They are thus less informative than profits about the firm's future prospects. The results are consistent with the hypothesis. They also show that the documented increase in the earnings response coefficent as the cumulation period increases appears to be due exclusively to the effect of losses. The liquidation option effect extends to profitable cases where earnings are low enough to make the option attractive. Alternating explanations for the low informativeness of losses such as mean reversal of earnings are not supported by the tests.

The changing time-series properties of earnings, cash flows and accruals: Has financial reporting become more conservative?

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2000 29(3), 287-320
This paper documents changes in the patterns of earnings, cash flows and accruals over the last four decades. In the absence of a generally accepted definition of conservatism, a number of measures of reporting conservatism are identified and examined. These measures rely on the accumulation of nonoperating accruals, the timeliness of earnings with respect to bad and good news, characteristics of the earnings distribution and the market-to-book ratio. The patterns are consistent with an increase in conservative financial reporting over time. The findings have implications for accounting standard setting, regulation of financial information and financial statement analysis.

The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2002 33(2), 173-204
This paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts’ earnings expectations (MBE) enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations. Further, such a premium to MBE, although somewhat smaller, exists in the cases where MBE is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management. The findings also indicate that the premium to MBE is a leading indicator of future performance. This premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the MBE is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management.