Knowledge that Transforms

We examine the impact of the EU Banking Union on the information production of stress tests by exploiting the institutional shift in supervisory responsibility for significant banks to the European Central Bank (ECB) under the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). We hypothesize that a centralized authority with both supervisory and financial stability mandates may reduce the informativeness of stress tests to mitigate negative spillovers, particularly potential threats to financial stability arising from disclosure. Our findings support this hypothesis, showing that the information production from stress tests declined following the introduction of the SSM. This reduction is primarily driven by weakly performing banks. We find no support for alternative explanations such as supervisory leniency, market learning, or the absence of an acute crisis.

This paper examines the Reaching-for-Coupon (RFC) phenomenon in U.S. corporate bond mutual funds. We define RFC as a portfolio tilt toward higher-coupon bonds relative to peers with similar yields. Using detailed bond-level holdings data from 2002–2018, we construct a novel fund-level RFC measure and show that high-RFC funds attract larger inflows, particularly in low-interest-rate environments. Crucially, investor flows into RFC funds are less sensitive to poor performance, leading to a less concave flow–performance relationship and mitigating redemption-driven fragility. These altered flow dynamics strengthen managerial incentives to take risk. Moreover, compared to Reaching-for-Yield (RFY) funds, RFC funds provide more stable income streams and are less exposed to credit downgrades. Our results demonstrate that RFC captures a distinct channel through which income-driven investor demand shapes risk-taking and fragility in bond markets.

We show that the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests worsened bank loan terms and reduced vacancy postings by 16% among private firms with prior relationships with stress-tested banks. The decline is concentrated in postings for less-educated workers, indicating a contraction in hiring along this margin. These effects are temporary. Firms respond to tighter credit by shifting toward smaller financial institutions. This adjustment increases loan sizes from both new and existing lenders, which mitigates the impact of stress tests on labor demand over time.

We analyze the potential impact of the recent US reform that permits employers to match retirement plan contributions when employees repay their student loans. Our calibrated lifecycle model measures the impact of this policy on heterogeneous household financial behavior and welfare. We show that, post-reform, workers optimally reduce their own retirement plan contributions in exchange for the employer matches and repay student loans more slowly and smoothly. The reform also boosts financial wealth and annual pre-retirement consumption. Workers with high student debt relative to expected lifetime income gain the most from the reform, reflecting their greater repayment burden.

This paper investigates how historically intensive irrigation systems influenced enduring institutional and cultural traits that constrain firms’ access to finance. Combining geo-climatic measures of irrigation potential with firm-level data from 174 ethnic regions across 146 countries, we find that historically irrigated societies are characterised by weaker property rights, lower trust in financial institutions, and greater reliance on internal financing. Firms in these regions report more severe financial obstacles and higher rejection rates from banks. Implementing a spatial regression discontinuity design around the Lower Rhine and using irrigation potential as an instrument, we provide evidence consistent with a long-term influence of historical irrigation on modern credit frictions. The effects are most evident among privately owned domestic firms, unaffiliated firms, and those with higher female ownership. These findings indicate that ancient irrigation infrastructure is associated with persistent imprints on contemporary financial markets.

We introduce a novel measure for investors' Degree of Rejoicing and Regret (DRR) and test its power to explain cross-sectional stock returns. Consistent with investors demanding compensation for anticipated regret, a portfolio of low-DRR stocks outperforms that of high-DRR stocks by 16.45% annually in the U.S. market. This DRR effect is present globally across 44 markets and is stronger in countries characterized by higher individualism, greater uncertainty avoidance, and weaker investor protection. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of rejoicing, a previously underemphasized component of regret theory, and demonstrates that our DRR measure subsumes the pricing power of existing regret-only proxies.

We study the production effects of one of the largest bank branch expansion programs in history, implemented by the government of India during the 1980s. Combining policy-driven variation with newly-digitized data on bank lending and crop prices at the district-year level, we do not find evidence for a significant shift in agricultural output and inputs on average. Greater bank presence does promote resilience to climate risk, however, by attenuating the effect of lagged rainfall shocks on output. This effect operates via changes in the incidence of cropping during the dry winter season, which makes use of costly irrigation resources.

This research investigates the influence of methodological choices in portfolio sorts on the size of the carbon premium. By analyzing more than 100,000 portfolio construction paths, we find that differences in the construction of brown-minus-green portfolios create a substantial non-standard error. From 2009 to 2022, the mean carbon premium is −0.16% per month, with a non-standard error of 0.26%. Methodological choices regarding the carbon transition risk proxy, the portfolio weighting scheme, and double sorting induce the largest variation, while controlling for common risk factors reduces it. Estimates of the carbon premium from firm-level regressions are similarly sensitive to methodological choices. Finally, we show that carbon allowance prices are related to the level of the carbon premium, whereas unexpected climate change concerns help explain periods of lower methodological uncertainty.

We study the trade-off between signal selection and diversification in asset pricing when many return predictors are available. Using the data-mining framework of Yan and Zheng (2017), we form long–short portfolios from financial ratio signals and evaluate performance relative to the CAPM and the Fama–French six-factor model. Although null signals are prevalent, portfolio performance is largely insensitive to their inclusion. Portfolios restricted to the most statistically significant signals underperform more diversified strategies. Out-of-sample information ratios are highest at p -value thresholds between 5% and 10%, well above levels typically advocated for false-discovery-controlled inference. The results indicate that diversification is more effective than strict inference-oriented signal selection for portfolio construction.