Knowledge that Transforms

Expert forecasts are an essential component of asset management and an important research topic. However, the effect of behavioral biases on expert forecasts is generally ignored. This paper examines the effect of biased expert forecasts on asset allocations. We find that biases have a significant impact on portfolios, explaining nearly 70% of excess risk-taking in our implementation. To address the effect of behavioral biases, we propose an integrated behavioral continuous-time portfolio selection model which we solve in closed form. The model applies general principles to identify and reduce the impact of five main behavioral biases. This paper concludes with a new personal fractional Kelly decomposition to account for the effect of opinions on the optimal asset allocation.

We investigate the price reaction of listed companies in response to blockchain-related announcements. The average abnormal return based on a global sample of 713 firm announcements is approximately 5% on the announcement day, with significantly higher returns for U.S. firms, smaller firms and announcements in late 2017 and early 2018. We show that abnormal returns are linked to the performance of bitcoin. Additionally, speculative announcements exhibit higher returns than non-speculative announcements, and blockchain-related Form 8-K disclosures have negligible difference in performance compared to their U.S. peers. Whilst we acknowledge the possibility of a latent variable that affects both the abnormal returns and the performance of bitcoin, we hypothesise that investors have confused bitcoin and blockchain, and used the performance of bitcoin as an indicator of the expected success of the blockchain technology.

Siblings are important sources of support. Male siblings, in particular, are valuable extended family resources in patriarchal societies such as China. This paper examines the effects of the number of brothers on household stock market participation in China. We find that having more brothers increases both the probability of stock market participation and the portfolio share in stocks. This positive effect is more pronounced for individuals who face high income risk, suffer from poor health, lack private insurance, and reside in areas with low financial development and high gender discrimination. In addition, the brother effect persists in recent periods. This evidence highlights the importance of informal risk-sharing networks in household investment decisions. Our results imply that demographic changes such as fertility decline might have unnoticed but sizable impacts on household portfolio choice, especially in countries with strong family ties.

Against the background of the great financial crisis, this paper assesses the merits of bank-based versus market-based financing by exploring the relationship between financial structure and systemic risk. The findings indicate that bank-based financial structures are associated with higher systemic risk than market-based financial structures. In relatively bank-based financial structures, bank financing is found to increase systemic risk while market financing decreases systemic risk. By contrast, in relatively market-based financial structures, bank and market financing do not impact systemic risk. Together, the results signal that market-based financial structures are more resilient to systemic risk.

This paper presents evidence that firms choose conservative financial policies to mitigate firms’ exposure to short selling threat. I exploit changes in the regulation of short selling constraints as an exogenous shock to the short selling threat borne by firms. I find that higher short selling threat leads to decreased corporate leverage, particularly for firms facing greater expected short selling threats, for firms with higher financial distress risks, and for firms whose managers are more risk averse. The findings suggest that short selling threats have a significant impact on corporate financing decisions through changes in the costs of financial distress.

This paper examines the estimation of global and local betas for a large set of Developed and Emerging international markets. Estimators based on daily data clearly outperform those based on monthly or quarterly data. For global and local market betas, the optimal window length is at roughly 24 and 12 months, respectively, for most Developed Markets. It tends to be somewhat longer for Emerging Markets. The best estimators include a double-shrinkage, a long memory (FI), and a simple combination approach. For hedging the market risk exposure in anomaly portfolios, the FI and combination estimators also perform overall best.

The aggregate Lerner index is a popular composite measure of multi-product banks’ market power, based on total assets as the single aggregate output factor. We show that the aggregate Lerner index only qualifies as a consistently aggregated Lerner index if three conditions hold. Under these conditions, the aggregate Lerner index reduces to a weighted-average of the product-specific Lerner indices. We test the three conditions for a sample of U.S. banks covering the years 2011–2017. All three conditions are rejected and we show that they may cause an economically relevant bias to the aggregate Lerner index, depending on the economic context. As a general solution, we propose using the always consistently aggregated weighted-average Lerner index whenever a composite Lerner index is needed.

This paper proposes a new approach to evaluating banks’ liquidity needs, which is not only well-grounded theoretically, but is also easy to apply practically. Within the framework of a global game with imperfect information, we first establish a boundary condition for bank runs and show that there exists a unique Nash equilibrium for bank runs. Using the option-pricing approach, we then obtain a closed-form formula for the value of bank equity with both run risk and insolvency risk. Finally, a bank's optimal liquidity ratio is derived by maximizing the value of bank equity. Using data on Chinese listed banks, we show that the deviation of the actual liquidity ratio from the optimal liquidity ratio in a bank represents a robust proxy for its liquidity risk. An increased liquidity shortfall leads to worsening liquidity problems, and this is particularly pronounced when the liquidity shortfall is high.

We examine the relationship between stock extreme illiquidity and the implied cost of capital for firms from 45 countries. We document robust evidence that firms whose stocks have a greater potential for extreme illiquidity realizations suffer from higher cost of capital. A one standard deviation increase in a stock's liquidity tail index leads to a rise of 30 basis points in the cost of equity. The reported evidence for stock extreme illiquidity is independent of the systematic extreme liquidity risk and extends to alternative cost-percent liquidity proxies. We further find that this relation is stronger in periods of down markets and high volatility and is weaker in environments with better information quality and stronger investor protection.

Analysis of shareholdings reveals that corporate directors generate positive alpha when they hold board interlocked stocks, where they are not an insider but a current co-board member is. In contrast, directors do not outperform when they hold inside stocks or other stocks unconnected to the board network. Analysis of trades shows that directors outperform when they buy or sell their own company's stock as insiders. They also outperform when they buy interlocked stocks. Results are similar for trades made before firm-specific information events. We also find limited support for the hypothesis that industry familiarity improves performance.