Knowledge that Transforms

This paper proposes the use of a portfolio optimization methodology which combines features of equilibrium models and investor’s views as in Black and Litterman (1992), and also deals with estimation risk as in Michaud (1998). In this way, our combined methodology is able to meet the needs of practitioners for stable and diversified portfolio allocations, while it is theoretically grounded on an equilibrium framework. We empirically test the methodology using a comprehensive sample of developed countries fixed income and equity indices, as well as sub-samples stratified by geographical region, time period, asset class and risk level. In general, our proposed combined methodology generates very competitive portfolios when compared to other methodologies, considering three evaluation dimensions: financial efficiency, diversification, and allocation stability. By generating financially efficient, stable, and diversified portfolio allocations, our methodology is suitable for long-term investors such as Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds.

We examine how strategic interaction in an industry influences the earnings expectations of financial analysts with regard to new product strategies. We find that following announcement of new products, analysts revise earnings forecasts upward more for announcing firms competing in low-strategic interaction industries than for firms competing in high-strategic interaction industries. For value-enhancing (value-reducing) product strategies, earnings forecast revisions are more favorable for rivals competing under a high (low) degree of strategic interaction than for rivals competing under a low (high) degree of strategic interaction. Overall empirical evidence indicates that the nature of strategic competition within the industry is important in assessing the market expectations of earnings for new product announcers and their rivals.

This study examines the asset pricing implications of preferences over the higher moments of returns’ distributions. We show that in a market populated by risk-averse, prudent and temperate investors, firms whose returns exhibit negative coskewness or positive cokurtosis should yield higher premia relative to counterpart firms with positive coskewness and negative cokurtosis respectively. These theoretical predictions are empirically tested using a comprehensive dataset of shares listed on the London Stock Exchange during the period 1986–2008. Our empirical results confirm that coskewness and cokurtosis premia are genuinely priced in the UK market, over and above what covariance risk, size, value and momentum factors can explain. We also show that a theoretically motivated, higher co-moment asset pricing model has significant explanatory ability over the cross-section of coskewness and cokurtosis portfolio returns.

We compare statistical and economic measures of forecasting performance across a large set of stock return prediction models with time-varying mean and volatility. We find that it is very common for models to produce higher out-of-sample mean squared forecast errors than a model assuming a constant equity premium, yet simultaneously add economic value when their forecasts are used to guide portfolio decisions. While there is generally a positive correlation between a return prediction model’s out-of-sample statistical performance and its ability to add economic value, the relation tends to be weak and only explains a small part of the cross-sectional variation in different models’ economic value.

This study investigates another calendar anomaly the literature does not yet address – the week-of-the-year (WOY) effect. Using the weekly returns on the stock market indexes of 20 countries worldwide, for a period that ends in December 2010, the findings demonstrate that returns in Week 44, which starts on October 29 and ends on November 4, are positive in 19 of the 20 countries, and in 18 of them, it is also statistically significant. In contrast, the returns for Week 43, which starts on October 22 and ends on October 28, are negative in 19 of the 20 countries, and statistically significant for most of the countries. We also apply an investment strategy derived from these findings to a prediction period (2009–2010), and find that this strategy beats the simple buy-and-hold policy by a substantial margin.

While convertible offerings announced between 1984 and 1999 induce average abnormal stock returns of −1.69%, convertible announcement effects over the period 2000–2008 are more than twice as negative (−4.59%). We hypothesize that this evolution is attributable to a shift in the convertible bond investor base from long-only investors towards convertible arbitrage funds. These funds buy convertibles and short the underlying stocks, causing downward price pressure. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the differences in announcement returns between the Traditional Investor period (1984–1999) and the Arbitrage period (2000–September 2008) disappear when controlling for arbitrage-induced short selling associated with a range of hedging strategies. Post-issuance stock returns are also in line with the arbitrage explanation. Average announcement effects of convertibles issued during the Global Financial Crisis are even more negative (−9.12%), due to a combination of short-selling price pressure and issuer, issue, and macroeconomic characteristics associated with these offerings.

The estimates of the US term premium crucially depend upon the ex-ante decision on whether the short-term rate is either an I(0) or an I(1) process. In this paper we estimate a fractionally integrated (I(d)) model which simultaneously determines both the order of integration of the short-term rate and the associated term premium. We show that the term premium experienced a sharp increase from essentially zero in mid-2007 to almost 3% in 2009. We also show that unemployment and term premium dynamics exhibit a very significant positive co-movement.

In this study, we examine the relationship between the structure of financial systems and financial crises. Using cross-country data on financial structures and crises, we find that there is a significant short-term reversal in development of the banking sector and the stock market during both bank crises and market crashes, with the corporate bond market moving in the same direction as bank credit. However, the results are significant for countries with market-based financial systems but not for countries with bank-based financial systems. Emerging markets have mainly bank-based financial systems, which may explain why these markets require more time to recover from economic downturns after a financial crisis. Therefore, we argue that governments should emphasize a balanced financial system structure as it helps countries to recover from financial crises more quickly compared with countries that lack such balanced structures.

We investigate the term structure of bond market illiquidity premia and show that the term structure varies greatly over time. Short and long end are strictly separated suggesting that different economic factors drive different parts of the term structure. We propose a stylized theoretical model which implies that current trading needs of investors determine the short end. The long-term risk of being forced to liquidate bond positions determines the long end. Empirical evidence supports these predictions. While short-term liquidation risk captured by asset market volatilities drives the short end, the long end depends on the long-term economic outlook.

This paper investigates the effect of financial deepening on the relationship between trade credit and cash holdings among Chinese listed firms. We first document an asymmetric effect of trade payables and receivables on cash holdings, in that firms hold an additional 0.71 of cash for every 1 of credit payable but use 1 of receivables as a substitute for only 0.15 of cash. We then find that firms in regions with higher levels of financial deepening hold less cash for payables while substituting more receivables for cash. A more highly developed financial sector helps firms to better use trade credit as a short-term financing instrument. Finally, we find that the ratio at which receivables are substituted for cash increased following the implementation of the new receivables pledge policy in 2007, which allowed firms to use receivables as security for loans. This policy event represents an exogenous shock that mitigates the endogeneity concern.