Knowledge that Transforms

Financial economists for the past two decades have attempted to explain why the equity premium is so high, now known as the equity premium puzzle (EPP). We model investor heterogeneity, market segmentation and optimal leverage, using the time separable standard power utility, market completeness and ignoring transaction costs to explain the EPP. We explain both the EPP and the related risk-free rate puzzle without resorting to preference modification. Furthermore, we show a unique interior equilibrium for the debt ratio, contrary to the work by F. Modigliani, M.H. Miller (The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment, American Economic Review 48 (1958) 261–297; Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital, American Economic Review 53 (1963), 433–443) and S.C. Myers (Presidential address: The capital structure puzzle, Journal of Finance 39 (1984), 575–592). Our simulations show the relevance of our models.

We explore productivity growth for a group of 201 large US commercial banks over the initial post-deregulation period from 1984 to 1990, using data envelopment analysis (DEA). We measure productivity growth using Malmquist productivity indexes and isolate the contributions of technical change, technical efficiency change, and scale change to productivity growth. We find overall productivity growth at the rate of about 4.5% per year on average, but productivity declined by 7.61% between 1984 and 1985 and by 0.33% between 1988 and 1989. Our second-stage panel regressions reveal that larger asset size and specialization of product mix associate with higher productivity growth while higher equity to assets associates with lower productivity growth.

Estimates of average default probabilities for borrowers assigned to each of a financial institution's internal credit risk rating grades are crucial inputs to portfolio credit risk models. Such models are increasingly used in setting financial institution capital structure, in internal control and compensation systems, in asset-backed security design, and are being considered for use in setting regulatory capital requirements for banks. This paper empirically examines properties of the major methods currently used to estimate average default probabilities by grade. Evidence of potential problems of bias, instability, and gaming is presented. With care, and perhaps judicious application of multiple methods, satisfactory estimates may be possible. In passing, evidence is presented about other properties of internal and rating-agency ratings.

We study incremental capital structure decisions of Dutch companies. From 1977 to 1996 these companies have made 110 issues of public and private seasoned equity and 137 public issues of straight debt. Managers of Dutch companies are entrenched. For this reason a discrepancy exists between managerial decisions and shareholder reactions. Confirming Zwiebel [American Economic Review (1996) 1197–1215] we find that Dutch managers avoid the disciplining role of debt allowing them to overinvest. However, the market reactions show that this overinvestment behavior is recognized. We do not find a confirmation of the adverse selection model of Myers and Majluf [Journal of Financial Economics (1984) 187–221]. This is probably due to the entrenchment of managers and the prevalence of rights issues.

This paper investigates long-term interdependencies and short-term dynamics in currency futures utilizing intraday data for six major foreign currencies: the British Pound, Deutsche Mark, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Japanese Yen. Lack of cointegration (CI) among the foreign exchange futures is found to be the prevailing mode of behavior, but some temporary deviations from the no-CI condition are detected. There is a notable overlap between detected CI relationships and the timing of policy changes, world events, and regime shifts, indicating that the observed CIs are event-driven. The robustness of the CI results is checked with respect to variations in the model, lag structure, data period, sample horizon, and currency basket grouping. Impulse–response functions (IRFs) reveal that currency markets are in general efficient and absorb new information within the day. The interdependence among currencies is found to be asymmetric.

This paper investigates the uneven mean reverting pattern of monthly return indexes of the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, using asymmetric non-linear smooth-transition (ANST) GARCH models. It also evaluates the extent to which time-varying volatility in the index returns support the stock market overreaction hypothesis. The models illuminate patterns of asymmetric mean reversion and risk decimation. Between 1926:01 and l997:12, not only did negative returns reverse to positive returns quicker than positive returns reverted to negative ones, but negative returns, in fact, reduced risk premiums from predictable high volatility. The findings support the market overreaction hypotheses. The asymmetry is due to the mispricing behavior on the part of investors who overreact to certain market news. The findings also corroborate arguments for the “contrarian” portfolio strategy.

Moody's endorses the Basel Committee's proposal to use banks' internal risk assessments to refine the Basel Accord's risk weights on bank assets and commitments. External risk assessments, such as Moody's credit ratings, will likely play a supporting role as direct inputs into banks' internal rating systems and as tools for benchmarking and validating those systems. However, the widespread use of ratings in regulation threatens to undermine the quality of credit over time by increasing rating shopping, decreasing rating agency independence, and reducing incentives to innovate and improve the quality of ratings. This paper discusses how bank regulators can use external ratings in ways that mitigate the adverse incentives created by the resulting regulatory demand for rating agency services.

Co-integration analysis is applied to historical data (1760–1864) from the world’s first well-established futures market, in rice at Dojima (in Osaka, Japan). The market shows a strong seasonal character. The summer market was strongly characterized by producers’ hedging behavior, and may be called a “commodity-oriented futures market”. On the other hand, the spring and autumn markets in the middle of Tokugawa era were “financial” markets, characterized by the unbiasedness hypothesis from the theory of rational expectations.

The literature on anomalies in developed stock markets produces no consensus on specification. This study uses extreme bound analysis (EBA) to evaluate the robustness of 15 stock-return anomalies given data covering 16 developed markets from May 1984 to March 1999. Two factors are sturdy according to the “extreme” decision rule in the panel design – D/P and momentum. Under a less stringent EBA criterion, long-run lagged returns, country risk, and the January effect are also robust. Time-series EBA for individual markets produces one robust result according to relaxed decision rules across a majority of cases – long-run government bond yields.

We derive an analytic approximation to the credit loss distribution of large portfolios by letting the number of exposures tend to infinity. Defaults and rating migrations for individual exposures are driven by a factor model in order to capture co-movements in changing credit quality. The limiting credit loss distribution obeys the empirical stylized facts of skewness and heavy tails. We show how portfolio features like the degree of systematic risk, credit quality and term to maturity affect the distributional shape of portfolio credit losses. Using empirical data, it appears that the Basle 8% rule corresponds to quantiles with confidence levels exceeding 98%. The limit law's relevance for credit risk management is investigated further by checking its applicability to portfolios with a finite number of exposures. Relatively homogeneous portfolios of 300 exposures can be well approximated by the limit law. A minimum of 800 exposures is required if portfolios are relatively heterogeneous. Realistic loan portfolios often contain thousands of exposures implying that our analytic approach can be a fast and accurate alternative to the standard Monte-Carlo simulation techniques adopted in much of the literature.