Knowledge that Transforms

By devising a real effective exchange rate (REER) index where bilateral exchange rates are weighted for relative trade shares, we find that the REER volatility (differently from the bilateral exchange rate volatility with the dollar) has significant impact on growth of per capita income after controlling for other variables traditionally considered in conditional convergence estimates. We also find that this (cost of volatility) effect can be reconciled with the concurring negative and significant effect on growth of the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime (advantage of flexibility effect), where the latter may be also interpreted as the cost of choosing pegged regimes without harmonization of rules and macroeconomic policies with main trading partners. The adoption of an REER volatility measure, instead of a bilateral exchange rate with the dollar, has the advantage of making it possible a joint test for these two effects. This is because, while fixed exchange rate regimes are strongly negatively correlated, and almost collinear, with bilateral exchange rate volatility with the dollar, the correlation is much weaker when considering our REER volatility measure.

The aim of this paper is to introduce some methodologies for parameter estimation in Hobson and Rogers stochastic volatility model (1998). We pay a specific attention to the so-called feedback parameter, which is shown to be crucial for the model to fit correctly the smile curve of implied volatility and we introduce different procedures for the estimation of the volatility parameters. We finally test the pricing capability of the model on market options prices on the FTSE100 and the S&P500 Indexes, according to the estimation methodologies introduced.

This study investigates the performance of firms with extremely high levels of market to sales value (“concept stocks”). To many observers, these stocks appear overvalued. However, proponents argue that because of their unique characteristics, traditional pricing models fail to value these firms correctly. Ex post, the debate can be resolved through an analysis of the long-term performance of concept stocks. En route to testing the implied overpricing hypothesis we document several important findings. First, the identity and characteristics of concept stocks have changed markedly over time. Although the obvious recent examples are internet and biotech stocks, concept stocks vary widely by industry over the past four decades. The industries containing the most popular concept stocks evolve from oil and gas extraction in the 1960s and 1970s, to computer and office equipment in the 1980s, and to computer-related services in the 1990s. Second, although concept stocks tend to be young, small, growth stocks in the 1990s, they exhibit a wide range of characteristics throughout the sample period. Third, the relative pricing of concept stocks (compared to either a control sample or the entire population) has changed dramatically over time. The average concept stock sold for approximately three times sales in the late 1960s and 1970s, five times sales in the 1980s and nearly 17 times sales in the 1990s. Finally, we find evidence supporting the overpricing hypothesis. Concept stocks under-perform significantly in the long run. This under-performance is more severe for Nasdaq firms and in the most recent two decades. The results are separate from glamour, IPO, industry, or contrarian effects and remain after an extensive sensitivity analysis.

An “output characteristics” cost function is used to identify payment sources of technical change in European banking and estimate associated benefits. As the share of electronic payments in 12 European countries rose from 0.43 in 1987 to 0.79 in 1999 and ATMs expanded while the number of branch offices was constant, bank operating costs are $32 billion lower than they otherwise might have been, saving 0.38% of the 12 nations’ GDP. Policies facilitating these changes (antitrust exemptions to weakly coordinate implementation of payment service pricing) would permit benefits to be more fully realized.

This paper examines volume and volatility dynamics by accounting for market activity measured by the time duration between two consecutive transactions. A time-consistent vector autoregressive (VAR) model is employed to test the dynamic relationship between return volatility and trades using intraday irregularly spaced transaction data. The model is used to identify the informed and uninformed components of return volatility and to estimate the speed of price adjustment to new information. It is found that volatility and volume are persistent and highly correlated with past volatility and volume. The time duration between trades has a negative effect on the volatility response to trades and correlation between trades. Consistent with microstructure theory, shorter time duration between trades implies higher probability of news arrival and higher volatility. Furthermore, bid–ask spreads are serially dependent and strongly affected by the informed trading and inventory costs.

“Structured products” (SP) have recently been introduced onto organized markets in the United States. Payoffs for such financially-engineered securities typically combine stock, bond and contingent claims features. In this paper attention is focused upon reverse-exchangeable securities (RES), an important and rapidly growing segment of the American SP market. First we undertake a replication of RES payout with a linear portfolio of publicly traded securities in a simple no-arbitrage framework. It is thereby possible to estimate theoretically “fair” terms of issuance, and contrast these with actual terms. We conclude that there is a significant pricing bias in favor of the issuing financial institution. Credit enhancement resulting from observed positive correlation between the RES terminal payoff and issuer financial performance is proposed as explanation for the apparent pricing discrepancy. Market completeness and possible tax advantages may also play a role in SP demand and the rapid expansion of this new derivatives market.

Factoring is explicitly linked to the value of a supplier’s accounts receivable and receivables are sold, rather than collateralized, and factored receivables are not part of the estate of a bankrupt firm. Therefore, factoring may allow a high-risk supplier to transfer its credit risk to higher quality buyers. Empirical tests find that factoring is larger in countries with greater economic development and growth and developed credit information bureaus. “Reverse factoring” may mitigate the problem of borrowers’ informational opacity if only receivables from high-quality buyers are factored. We illustrate the case of the Nafin reverse factoring program in Mexico.

This paper examines firms’ access to bank and market finance when allowance is made for differences in firm-specific characteristics. A theoretical model determines the characteristics such as size, risk and debt that would determine firms’ access to bank or market finance; these characteristics can result in greater (or lesser) tightening of credit when interest rates increase. An empirical evaluation of the predictions of the model is conducted on a large panel of UK manufacturing firms. We confirm that small, young and risky firms are more significantly affected by tight monetary conditions than large, old and secure firms.

This paper analyses the ever-growing literature on equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe in a quantitative manner using meta-regression analysis. The results indicate that the real misalignments reported in the literature are systematically influenced, inter alia, by the underlying theoretical concepts (Balassa–Samuelson effect, behavioral equilibrium exchange rate, fundamental equilibrium exchange rate) and by the econometric estimation methods. The important implication of these findings is that a systematic analysis is needed in terms of both alternative economic and econometric specifications to assess equilibrium exchange rates.